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Cutting-edge analysis, data-driven insights, and timely updates on crude, natural gas, NGLs, and the trends shaping producer revenue.
Natural GasMidcontinent Price and Fundamentals
Stay updated with the latest NGPL Midcont Basis price moves, forward price risk outlooks for upcoming seasons, and in-depth analysis of fundamentals and supply-demand trends in the Midcontinent. Get continuous updates and actionable insights with our regularly updated report.
· Ryan Alexander10 min read
Natural GasPermian Basin Gas Price and Fundamentals
Get continuous updates and actionable insights with our regularly updated Permian Basin report.
· Jay Stevens26 min read
Natural GasHaynesville Gas Price and Fundamentals
Discover the latest Columbia Gulf Mainline basis shifts, upcoming pipeline expansions like LEG and NG3, and the impact of rising LNG demand near Gillis on basis through 2026. Get continuous updates and actionable insights with our regularly updated Haynesville report.
· Christian Drolshagen12 min read
NGLsNGLs Price and Fundamentals
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) are distinct markets, but their prices inherit volatility from, and are influenced by, natural gas, crude oil, and petrochemical markets.
· Narciso Cano27 min read
Natural GasAppalachian Basin Gas Price and Fundamentals
Stay updated with the latest TETCO M2 and Eastern Gas South (FKA Dominion South) price moves, pipeline project updates, interactive forward curves, and changes to fundamentals and pipeline flows in the Appalachian Basin. Get continuous updates and actionable insights.
· Casey Bassett21 min read
Crude OilHalliburton Sees a Tight North America Frac Market as Prices Start to Rise
Halliburton reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $5.7 billion, flat from the second quarter. North America revenue fell 5% sequentially and 9% year…
· Thomas Liardon6 min read
Natural GasPersistent Heat Flips from Supportive to Bearish for Natural Gas Demand
Temperatures in the Lower-48 (L48) were supportive of natural gas demand throughout the first three weeks of October. Elevated power demand spurred on by…
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
Market StrategyBusiness Activity Picks-Up in Q3 Despite Rising Uncertainty
Activity in the oil and gas sector across Texas, southern New Mexico, and northern Louisiana picked up in the third quarter of 2026 according to oil and…
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
Crude OilEIA Raises Crude Price Forecasts Despite Recovering Middle East Flows
The EIA raised its crude price forecasts in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook as recovering Middle East exports failed to eliminate supply constraints,...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
LNGUS LNG Acts as Key Swing Supply in Global LNG Shortage
The outlook for the global LNG market has shifted this year. While LNG facilities have been running at maximum capacity in the US since 2020, pre-Iran war ...
· Thomas Liardon3 min read
Refined ProductsWhat a Diesel Export Ban Could Mean for Diesel & Crude Prices
A U.S. diesel export ban could provide some relief to domestic fuel prices, but its effects could extend beyond diesel. Whether that relief lasts, and how ...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
Natural GasNatural Gas Prices Held Steady by Tightening Storage Surplus
NYMEX Henry Hub prices have seen a steady decline since the beginning of March, but the downward trend has slowed over the last month and a half.
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
LNGLNG Fundamentals and Project Tracker
LNG feedgas demand averaged about 19 Bcf/d during Summer 2026. This was slightly below expectations, as Golden Pass LNG continued to ramp up at a slower…
· Christian Drolshagen5 min read
Crude OilEIA Extends Middle East Disruptions Through 2Q27, Raises Oil Price Outlook
The EIA now assumes most Middle Eastern production and trade flows return to pre-conflict levels during 2Q27, narrowing the 3Q26 deficit but deepening the 4Q26 draw — and lifting its WTI forecasts across the board.
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
Natural GasGas Power Demand Underperforms
Despite robust Lower-48 electricity demand from load growth and average to hotter-than-average temperatures, power sector consumption of natural gas has be...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Crude OilEIA Pushes Middle East Recovery to 2027, Lifts WTI Outlook Above $80
The EIA’s latest outlook points to a more prolonged disruption to Middle East oil markets, with the agency now pushing its expected return to pre-con...
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
Natural GasExpand Energy Sees Short-Term Gas Glut Giving Way to Long-Term Demand Growth
Expand Energy, the most prominent gas producer in the Haynesville Basin, as well as the second largest by volume in the Appalachian basin, reported ea...
· Thomas Liardon3 min read
Market StrategyHow Does the EIA Arrive at a 5 MMBbl/d Oil Surplus in 2027?
When we point clients to the EIA’s latest forecast for a global oil surplus of roughly 5 MMBbl/d in 2027, the response is often disbelief or skeptici...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasEQT Forecasts Robust Natural Gas Demand Growth
EQT, the largest Appalachian producer, released its latest earnings report, providing valuable insight into the Appalachian basin and infrastructure develo...
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through July 10th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through July 10th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Crude OilEIA Raises Global Balance Expectations as MOU Takes Effect
In their latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA revised its expectations for global oil balances as the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Unders...
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
Crude OilHow the US-Iran MoU Repriced Crude Markets
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) marked the end of crude's war-driven rally, sending prices tumbling from their peak above $110/Bbl as traffic...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Market StrategyEIA Revises Global Balances Lower as Middle East Disruptions Continue
In their latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA revised its global oil balance outlook as the US and Iran continue to fall short of an agreement ...
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 29th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 29th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Crude OilEIA Outlook Points to Oversupplied Oil Market by 2027
The latest projections from the EIA are pointing toward large global oil surpluses in 2027. Despite the ongoing supply crisis, analysts are projecting that...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 22nd, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 22nd, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
NGLsPropane Lifted by Crude Surge While Fundamentals Remain Weak
Since the start of the US-Iran conflict, propane prices have benefited from the sharp rally in crude oil. Prior to the conflict, domestic propane fundament...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 15th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 15th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Crude OilEIA Revises Global Oil Balances Lower as Hormuz Disruptions Deepen
In their latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA has revised its global balances outlook as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz ...
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 8th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 8th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 1st, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through May 1st, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Natural GasElectricity Demand Is Growing, But Gas May Not Benefit Yet
Electricity demand continues to grow in the US, driven by data centers and the buildout of AI infrastructure. However, natural gas may not benefit until la...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through April 24th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through April 24th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
- Market Strategy
Hedging structure recommendations Nov 5, 2021
Hedging structure recommendations Nov 5, 2021
· Matt Marshall2 min read
Market StrategyWeek Ending April 17
Risk Premium Unwinds as Hormuz Reopens but Uncertainty Still Looms Crude prices moved sharply lower this week after Iran signaled a reopening of the Strai...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
Crude OilGlobal Oil Balances Tighten as Agencies Diverge on Demand Outlook
April releases from the EIA, OPEC, and the IEA point to a market undergoing a rapid shift. The market has moved from expectations of oversupply at the star...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilWhy The WTI Price You See On TV Isn't The Price You Hedge
In the world of energy trading, not all pricing tools are created equal. Two commonly used benchmarks, WTI Futures Contracts and WTI Calendar Month Average (CMA) Contracts, serve different purposes and appeal to different types of traders and hedgers.
· Ryan Alexander3 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through April 10th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through April 10th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Crude OilWar Extends Through April, Driving Further Shifts in April STEO Crude Outlook
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) highlights a crude market that has rapidly shifted from surplus to disruption-driven tightness following the ef...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through April 2nd, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through April 2nd, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through March 27th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through March 27th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Market StrategyActivity Rebounds but Uncertainty Keeps Producers on the Sidelines
Oil and gas activity across Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico moved back into expansion territory in the first quarter for 2026. The Dalla...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilWar in the Gulf Forces Major Revisions in March STEO Crude Outlook
The EIA's March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) includes one of the largest month-to-month revisions to crude market expectations in recent years, driven ...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasTransco Expansion to Unlock New Appalachian Production
Transco’s 1.6 Bcf/d Southeast Supply Enhancement Project Status Update Transcontinental Gas Pipeline’s 1.6 Bcf/d Southeast Supply E...
· Thomas Liardon2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through March 13th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through March 13th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Crude OilChina's Inventory Builds Could Help Moderate Oil Market Tightness
China’s Inventory Builds Could Help Moderate Oil Market Tightness With conflict in the Middle East threatening regional energy flows, Chinese author...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilProducer Hedging Surges as Oil Rallies Following Middle East War
The start of March has seen a surge in trading activity as oil producers moved aggressively to hedge production following a sharp rally in crude prices. Th...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
Crude OilRising Call-Skew Signals Acute Oil Risk and a Rare Hedging Opportunity
This rarely happens: oil producers are currently being paid a larger premium to use costless collars. When we compare similarly out-of-the-money put option...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
LNGGolden Pass LNG Starts Up
After several years of delays, ExxonMobil’s Golden Pass LNG export facility has finally begun receiving material volumes of feedgas. Golden Pass will...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through February 20th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through February 20th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Natural GasRegional Basis Differentials Will Not Always Participate When Henry Hub Rallies
Regional gas markets are unpredictable and disrupted when Henry Hub prices are high, cold weather arrives, and demand exceeds supply – if January 202...
· AEGIS Market Analytics5 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through February 13th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through February 13th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through February 6th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through February 6th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Natural GasWinter storm impacts fade but leaves a more bullish outlook
Last week’s winter storm Fern sent natural gas demand higher, supply lower, and resulted in the highest monthly Henry Hub contract settlement since 2...
· Christian Drolshagen3 min read
Crude OilIran Escalation Lifts Crude Despite Bearish Fundamentals
Rising tensions between the United States and Iran have become the dominant driver of crude markets, pushing WTI prices above $66/Bbl and lifting oil to th...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasProducers Rush to Hedge as Natural Gas Prices Explode Higher
After the Henry Hub natural gas price for February doubled, oil-and-gas producers aggressively locked in hedges. Cold weather caused the largest one-week rally since at least 1990. Oil and gas producers leaned into the historic rally in Nymex Henry Hub prices driven by Winter Storm Fern.
· Jay Stevens2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through January 23rd, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through January 23rd, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
NGLsHedging NGLs Is Often Overlooked by Oil and Natural Gas Producers, But Should It Be?
Producers that do not hedge NGLs are overlooking a material source of risk to revenue, especially in oil and rich-gas plays where NGL contributions can be significant. In oil-focused plays, AEGIS data show NGLs can generate up to three times more revenue than natural gas.
· Ryan Alexander7 min read
Crude OilKazakhstan's Supply Disruptions Highlight Crude's Short-Term Sensitivity
Oil prices continue to trade in a market defined by structural oversupply, yet recent events in Kazakhstan underscore how temporary supply disruptions can ...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasFebruary Natural Gas Surges Nearly $2 Ahead of Winter Storm
The February Henry Hub contract has risen $1.90 in the last three days, with the contract rising from $3.10/MMbtu on Friday to more than $5.00/MMbtu as o...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through January 16th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through January 16th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through January 9th, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through January 9th, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
- Renewables
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through January 2nd, 2026
LCFS & RIN Pricing Report Through January 2nd, 2026
· Marcus Seignon1 min read
Market StrategyLingering Pessimism and Capital Discipline Weigh on Oil and Gas Activity
Oil and gas operators across Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico ended 2025 on a cautious footing as activity remained in contraction and co...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
Crude OilOil Prices Reflect Fundamentals More Than Geopolitical Headlines in 2025
Geopolitical risk is often associated with upward pressure on oil prices, with conflicts, sanctions, and supply disruptions contributing to risk premiums i...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasVolatile Henry Hub Price Action Provided Opportunistic Hedging for Producers
Natural gas prices experienced a sharp increase followed by a rapid decline within the initial eleven days of December. Cold weather forecasts for Decembe...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
NGLsPropane Prices Firm on Colder Weather, Despite a Loose Market
Propane prices strengthened in early December even though the underlying market remains well supplied. After trading in the lower $0.60/gal range through m...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilEIA Projects Looser Oil Balances in 2026 Amid Persistent Non-OPEC Growth
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the EIA presents a materially looser global oil landscape heading into 2026, driven by persistent non-OPEC...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilWhat a Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal Could Mean for the Global Crude Market
A potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia would arrive as the oil market moves into surplus. De-escalation could unwind remaining risk premiums at ...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
Natural GasNext Winter's Waha Basis Gas Prices Starting to Slip?
The “bullish” part of the Waha basis curve has been getting weaker. The Winter ’26-’27 strip has come off its near year-to-date hig...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
LNGGolden Pass LNG On Track for Winter Startup
After numerous delays over the past several years, the Golden Pass LNG export plant developed by ExxonMobil and Qatar Energy finally looks to be on track a...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Crude OilEIA Raises Price Forecasts Despite Growing Supply Surplus
The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) November 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) the agency raised its crude oil price forecasts for 2...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
Natural GasNatural Gas Option Skew Signals Bullish Bias
The natural gas options market is continuing to provide asymmetrical upside for natural gas producers for the next four seasons. Producers with additional ...
· Ryan Alexander2 min read
Natural GasNatural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Looks Tighter in Summer 2026
After what was a relatively bearish summer for natural gas in 2025, the supply-demand balance could tighten significantly in Summer 2026. Assuming ten-year...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Natural GasEQT Positions for the Next Gas Cycle with Operational Discipline and Global Ambition
The latest EQT earnings call showed the company moving away from managing prices through paper positions and toward influencing them through physical contr...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
Crude OilOPEC+ Falls Short on Promised Barrels but Oversupply Looms Regardless
OPEC+ began unwinding its voluntary production cuts in April 2025, completing the first 2.46 MMBbl/d tranche of restored output by September, a full year a...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
NGLsPropane Fundamentals Have Upside, But Oil Likely to Drag Down Propane Prices
The combination of new LPG export capacity and slower supply growth could tighten propane fundamentals over the next two years. However, the outlook for oi...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Crude OilEIA Projects Rising Inventories and Softer Oil Prices Into 2026
Global oil inventories are projected to continue rising through 2026, according to the EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook, highlighting a persis...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilOPEC+ Keeps Supply Hike Modest as Market Signals Weaken
OPEC+ opted for a smaller-than-expected production increase over the weekend, easing concerns that the group might accelerate its supply recovery into an i...
· Narciso Cano1 min read
Crude OilOPEC+ Eyes Faster Return Schedule for 1.66 MMBbl/d of Halted Production
OPEC+ will meet on October 5 to debate whether to accelerate the return of 1.66 MMBbl/d of voluntary cuts. One proposal under review is to raise output by ...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasWaha Prices at Multi-Year Low Foretells Future Risk
Spot and prompt month Waha basis prices sank into negative territory this month, with basis trading to -$4.50/MMbtu and fixed price falling to nearly -$2.0...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Market StrategyUncertainty and Rising Costs Weigh on Oil and Gas Activity
Oil and gas operators across Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico endured another difficult quarter as activity slipped further under the wei...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasIEA on Decline Rates and the Risk to Oil and Gas Supply
Conversations about the future of oil and gas markets often center on demand, how fast renewables will scale, whether policy will constrain consumption, or...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
LNGCove Point LNG Maintenance Could Weigh on Northeast Spot Prices
The Cove Point LNG export plant located in Maryland is set to enter maintenance within the next few days. This event, occurring yearly each Fall, will resu...
· Christian Drolshagen1 min read
Crude OilEIA Outlook Points to Persistent Oversupply, Soft Prices Ahead
EIA Outlook Points to Persistent Oversupply, Soft Prices Ahead In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA projects that significant growth in...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilOPEC+ Accelerates Production Hike, Setting Stage for Supply Glut
OPEC+ announced it will raise the group’s production quota by 137 MBbl/d for October, marking the start of unwinding 1.66 MMBbl/d of voluntary cuts t...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
LNGMore Than 8 Bcf/d of New LNG Export Capacity Could Reach FID by Year-End
The buildout of LNG export capacity in the US continues at a rapid pace, with capacity expanding significantly over the next five years. There is more than...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Natural GasLarge Natural Gas Storage Builds Weigh on Winter Prices
After ending winter ‘24/’25 well-below the five-year average, Lower-48 natural gas storage levels have climbed very swiftly this summer. This h...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Crude OilMoney Managers Tip WTI Into First-Ever Net Short When CME and ICE Combined
Money managers have cut their crude oil exposure to the lowest levels in more than 15 years, pushing WTI futures into unprecedented territory. The latest C...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilOil Oversupply Might be Beyond Fixing
Global oil demand growth would need to vastly outperform historical trends over the next 18 months to absorb projected supply increases from OPEC+ and non-...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Crude OilEIA Cuts Near-Term Crude Price Outlook
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA lowered its near-term oil price forecasts. The chart below underscores the shift in sentiment, with...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilOPEC+ Completes 2.2 MMBBl/d Unwind With September Production Quota Hike
OPEC+ announced a 547 MBbl/d production quota increase for the month of September, completing the reversal of the group’s November 2023 supply cuts a...
· Narciso Cano1 min read
Natural GasHaynesville's Largest Producer to Keep 2H 2025 Production Flat
The Haynesville remains in the spotlight because it’s seen as a key source for future U.S. gas supply. More on activity here and here. Yet, its bigge...
· Jay Stevens1 min read
LNGPositive Signs for Golden Pass LNG Startup
The Golden Pass LNG export plant, developed by ExxonMobil and Qatar Energy, appears to be nearing completion and the startup of LNG production. While the f...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Natural GasEQT's Q2 Call Highlights Strategic Shift Toward Demand-Linked Growth
EQT’s Q2 2025 earnings call showed a company focused less on production growth for its own sake and more on aligning gas volumes with firm, long-term...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasKinder Morgan - Key Project Updates
Kinder’s recent 2Q earnings call provided key natural gas project updates. The company is in the process of planning or developing natural gas infras...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Refined ProductsRecent U.S. Supreme Court Ruling Could Make Completing Energy Infrastructure Easier Again
The court ruled in Seven County Infrastructure Coalition v. Eagle County, Colorado to limit the scope of environmental review obligations under the Natio...
· Ryan Alexander2 min read
Crude OilSaudi Overproduction Casts Uncertainty on OPEC+ Supply Path
Saudi Overproduction Casts Uncertainty on OPEC+ Supply Path In their latest July monthly oil market report (MOMR), OPEC reported that Saudi Arabia produce...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasHaynesville Gas Activity Rebounds as Gas Prices Rise - but Supply Questions Persist
Year-to-date (Jan 1–July 18), Henry Hub has averaged $3.66/MMBtu—up $1.25 versus the same period last year. Producers have been locking-in a...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Refined ProductsSoft Demand and Rising Supply Widen Global Oil Market Imbalances
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) July 2025 Oil Market Report (OMR) presents a deteriorating picture for the global oil balance. World oil dema...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasFalling Henry Hub Prices Lead to Basis Improvements
Prompt Henry Hub prices have fallen more than 60c from June highs; meanwhile, several basis locations have improved. There is often an inverse relationship...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Natural GasMild Spring Robs Gas Bulls of Demand
Following cooler-than-normal temperatures in January and February, Lower 48 weather has been net-bearish for natural gas operators and traders holding bull...
· Jay Stevens1 min read
LNGHurricanes Are an Increasing Risk for Natural Gas Price
Any major disruption in the Gulf is more likely to negatively impact demand rather than supply The September 2020 outage at Cameron LNG due to Hurricane...
· Ryan Alexander2 min read
Crude OilEIA Lifts Near-Term Crude Price Forecasts
In their latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the agency raised its near-term oil price forecasts. The WTI price is now forecast to average $65.22/...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilOPEC+ Surprises with Supersized Production Quota Hike for August
At its latest meeting, OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected production quota hike of 548 MBbl/d for August, surpassing the market’s expectation of ...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Natural GasSummer Natural Gas Prices Suffer with Ample Supply
Natural gas prices have materially declined since their peak back in February. The August contract shown below is well off 1Q highs of nearly $5.00/MMbtu. ...
· Jay Stevens1 min read
Natural GasSolar Buildout Continues, Weighing on Gas Demand
Lower-48 solar generation continues to break records The buildout of renewable capacity will likely displace some gas power demand, specifically the les...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Natural GasConstruction on Williams' MountainWest Overthrust Pipeline Expansion Continues
The MountainWest Overthrust Pipeline (System Map) has started construction on its 325,000 Dth/d westbound expansion from Wamsutter to Opal (NWP Rockies). O...
· Ryan Alexander1 min read
Natural GasOil and Gas Activity Contracts Amid Lower Price Outlook and Cost Pressures
Oil and gas business activity across Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico declined in the second quarter of 2025, as uncertainty rose and…
· Narciso Cano3 min read
Crude OilTracking OPEC+ Supply: Headline vs. Reality
OPEC+ is in the process of bringing back over 2 MM barrels of additional production at a time when global balances forecast a surplus through 2026. However...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilOil's Geopolitical Whiplash: Prices Return to Square One
Oil prices experienced a volatile swing following escalating tensions in the Middle East that evolved into direct conflict involving Israel, Iran, and the ...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
LNGLNG Update: Maintenance Weighs on Volumes but Growth Continues
LNG feedgas demand has seen strong year-over-year growth in 2025, although maintenance has reduced volumes so far this summer Exports should reach a new...
· Christian Drolshagen3 min read
Crude OilGlobal Oil Market Loosens as Forecasts Shift: IEA
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) June 2025 Oil Market Report points to a loosening global oil balance through 2026, as softer demand and resil...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Crude OilEIA Projects U.S. Oil Production Decline Amid Weak Prices
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is now forecasting a decline in U.S. crude production in 2026, marking a notable shift from last month’s o...
· Narciso Cano4 min read
NGLsEthane Prices Slip After US Export Cargo Denial
Mont Belvieu ethane prices plunged on Wednesday, June 4, after the US government notified Enterprise Product Partners that they would be denied permission to export three ethane cargoes to China.
· Jay Stevens3 min read
NGLsHow to Hedge Oil and Gas When Prices Are Low
Don’t lock in a loss, but hedge to a realistic budget price. Prepare to act when prices strengthen because of short-term headlines. Keep as much ...
· Ryan Alexander3 min read
Natural GasLNG Risks to the Bullish Gas Thesis
The bullish story for natural gas over the next few years is mainly driven by the substantial increase in LNG export demand. However, this view is not with...
· Christian Drolshagen3 min read
Natural GasWaha Spring '26 Prices No Longer Near Zero
Finally some good (well, okayish) news for Waha prices! Waha fixed-price gas for Spring ’26 has risen closer to $1. Future price for April 2026 are...
· Matt Marshall2 min read
Crude OilOPEC+ Output Plan Adds to Surplus Concerns
OPEC+ is rapidly restoring crude supply into a weakening market, raising output by 411 MBbl/d in June following a similar increase in May. While the move is intended to enforce quota discipline and align with President Trump's calls for lower prices, it comes as global demand growth slows. OPEC+
· Narciso Cano3 min read
Crude OilU.S. Crude Output Nears Peak as Trade War Deepens Oil Price Slump
Oil prices have continued to decline in 2025, fueling growing concerns that U.S. crude oil production may have already peaked. A global trade war has sharply reduced oil demand growth forecasts, increasing the likelihood of a more pronounced oversupply in both 2025 and 2026. Both Brent and WTI have
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Crude OilEIA Makes Substantial Forecast Changes
The US Energy Information Agency released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes several notable changes compared to last month's outlook. He...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Crude OilAssessing the Trump Administration's Energy Tariffs and Global Trade Impact
The Trump administration has introduced a series of tariffs with significant implications for the global energy market. These measures, part of a broader s...
· Narciso Cano4 min read
Market StrategyPrice Dashboard
Benchmarks
· Ryan Alexander1 min read
Natural GasCould There Be More Waha Price Pain Ahead: Then Pipeline Overbuild?
Permian gas prices face a turbulent road ahead, with stability likely only arriving once significant new pipeline capacity becomes operational in l...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
RenewablesUS Renewable Fuels Tax Credits and Feedstock Values Rest on Election Outcome
US Renewable Fuels Tax Credits and Feedstock Values Rest on Election Outcome The US renewable fuels industry is increasingly mired by a lack of ...
· Zander Capozzola1 min read
Natural GasCanadian Gas Prices Have Suffered, Could That Change?
Prompt month AECO fixed price has trended downward since 2023, reaching the lowest price in over ten years this past summer Canadian gas storage is at c...
· Christian Drolshagen3 min read
Natural GasPrices Say Natural Gas This Winter Is the Same as Last Winter. Is it worse?
The Winter ’24/’25 (Nov-Mar) natural gas strip is only 30 cents above where Winter ’23/’24 settled. Does this make sense? Just over...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Natural GasNew Permian Gas Pipe Eases Pressure, but Kinder Maintenance Hits November Waha Basis
Permian gas prices received relief when a new pipeline came online in late September, but future maintenance will again reduce egress. Waha basis improved...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Crude OilBakken Price and Fundamentals
Updated September 17, 2024 Bakken crude price differentials and production have been relatively stable over the past 12 months. However, an increase in ga...
· Rishi Rajanala5 min read
Natural GasWaha Hub's 2024 Struggle: Egress Limits and Falling Gas Prices
Permian Basin producers are prioritizing oil operations, leading to an oversupply of associated gas and severe price declines at the Waha Hub. Limited t...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Market StrategyCanadian Rail Strike Set to Roil Markets
Canada's unprecedented rail shutdown is poised to rattle a broad spectrum of commodities with implications throughout North America. The country’s t...
· Zander Capozzola2 min read
Natural GasArchive - News Updates for Natural Gas Basins
Natural Gas Basis Permian Haynesville Rockies Appalachia Permian (July 17, 2024) - DeLa Express has advanced its 69...
· Rishi Rajanala11 min read
Natural Gas2025 Henry Hub: Bullish and Bearish
While the first half of 2025, and especially the first quarter, could see loose supply-demand balances, fundamentals should tighten in the second half of...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Natural GasWhy Hurricanes Now Pose a Bearish Risk to Natural Gas Prices
NOAA is expecting one of the most active hurricane seasons on record this year In previous decades, hurricanes had a bullish impact on prices by cutting...
· Christian Drolshagen3 min read
Natural GasGas-Fired Power Demand Growth from Data Centers Needs a Reality Check
Utilities, gas producers, and power authorities are saying new data centers will increase power demand While electricity load growth may be robust, natu...
· Christian Drolshagen4 min read
Crude OilOPEC Watch: Most relevant developments
OPEC and allies struggled to come to an agreement over oil production quotas. However, OPEC, with its participating guest countries (collectively, OPEC+), ...
· Rishi Rajanala21 min read
Market StrategyImportant US Economic Data (AEGIS Reference)
The overall state of the US economy is of grave importance to AEGIS's metals producer and consumer clients. Below we will highlight several key economic in...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Natural GasNWP Rockies Basis Saw a Major Blowout in Early 2023. Is This the New Norm?
NWP Rockies basis prices settled $44.86/MMBtu in January 2023 Structural undersupply plus favorably timed weather led to a meteoric price spike Lower v...
· Ryan Alexander4 min read
Refined ProductsUS Diesel Demand Flashes False Warning
US distillate demand is far from the seasonal 25-year lows implied by data from the Energy Information Agency, a bearish warning indicator which has stoked macroeconomic fears among energy traders and economists alike.
· Zander Capozzola3 min read
MetalsMexico's New Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Imports Create Uncertainty in US Markets
On April 23, 2024, the Mexican government announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from countries with which it does not have a free trade ag...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Natural GasNegative Gas Prices Return to the Permian as Overlapping Maintenance Looms
Natural gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have been negative every day except two since March 12, meaning a producer could have had to pay to have their gas taken away. This situation is primarily driven by an ample supply of gas, pipe maintenance, and weakened demand.
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
Natural GasRenewables Growth to Hit Gas Demand
Additions of wind, solar, and battery generators could displace about 5 Bcf/d of power sector gas demand by the end of 2025 This may have a bearish impa...
· Christian Drolshagen3 min read
Crude OilAn Often Overlooked Price Component - NYMEX WTI CMA Roll
WTI CMA Roll hinges on the direction of the NYMEX WTI forward curve, which reflects the market's expectations about future oil prices The Roll represent...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
MetalsMidwest Premium Buyers Should Hedge While Prices Hover at 3-Year Lows, and Demand Appears To Be Stabilizing
Some market participants have recently suggested that the Red Sea shipping crisis could cause the CME Midwest Premium (MWP) to rally. Although this is plau...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
Crude OilPermian to Gulf Coast Crude Pipelines Nearing Capacity. Will Bottlenecks Spur Takeaway Capacity Expansion?
Increasing supply from the Permian is nearing pipeline capacity limits, with utilization along the Permian-to-Gulf Coast route estimated at 90%, ...
· Rishi Rajanala6 min read
Natural GasDeclining Production Could Lift Gas Prices
Natural gas prices have declined sharply, prompting some producers to begin shutting in some production Declining output may have a significant impact o...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
MetalsAluminum Consumers Should Still Implement Hedges, Even Though Russia Sanctions Mean Little
On Friday, February 23, the Biden administration implemented a slew of sanctions against Russia, but none will have a severe impact on the LME aluminum mar...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
MetalsChina's Real Estate Woes Provide Opportunity for Copper Consumers
LME Copper prices are essentially flat on the year while the market struggles with both supply and demand issues. The world’s largest miner, Chile&rs...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
LNGLNG Export Approval Halt Unlikely to Dent Demand
Citing risks to the climate, the Biden Administration has paused the approval of new LNG export facilities The pause would not impact the next 10-12 Bcf...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
NGLsPropane Prices Face a Tough 2024
Propane prices may see additional pressure in 2024, even after a disappointing 2023 for producers. Robust supply, stagnant export capacity, and already-ele...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
LNGHigher Seasonal Volatility is Possible as Reliance on LNG Exports Increases
LNG export demand will become an even larger component of US gas demand in 2025+ A maturing LNG market will result in demand swings between winter and s...
· Ryan Alexander3 min read
MetalsYear-End Review of LME Aluminum, Copper, CME HRC Steel and Hedging Implications for 2024
Prices for LME Aluminum, LME Copper, and CME HRC Steel were all volatile this year for a variety of reasons. Below, we will highlight some recent headlines...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
MetalsAluminum and Copper Markets Diverge but Hedging Opportunities Persist for End-Users
The aluminum and copper markets have diverged in recent weeks. The aluminum market hasn’t fundamentally changed, but copper is going through some maj...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Crude OilImpending OPEC+ Meeting to Address African Quota Disputes and Market Stability
So…
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
Natural GasNatural Gas Production Surges to All-Time High
Lower 48 natural gas production has reached a new all-time high of more than 105 Bcf/d Most of the production growth has been from Appalachia and the Pe...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Natural GasPermian Supply Continues to Grow Amid Brownfield Expansion
Permian dry gas production has continued to grow, contributing to the Lower 48 supply hitting new records. At the same time, Waha prices have been weaker…
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Natural GasWinter Weather Scenarios Show Risk to Summer 2024 Gas Prices
Weather is the largest source of variability in gas storage balances and will play a big role in determining where the withdrawal season ends A signific...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Crude OilGeopolitical Risk Premium Returns to The Oil Market
Oil futures gapped up on Sunday afternoon trading in response to the sudden, escalated conflict between Hamas and Israel over the weekend. Traditionally, ...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
NGLsPropane Is Weak, But Crude Oil Could Provide Lift
Propane prices weakened in the second half of September on the back of declining crude oil prices. Propane’s supply and demand dynamics remain weak, ...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
RatesHigh Rates Equal Higher Cost of Hedging
When you pay a premium for your hedges, you have options. You can pay that cost upfront or choose to pay the cost at the expiration of the contract, or defer the cost. Over the past 15 years, the answer was usually obvious, defer. Interest rates have been steadily rising since…
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
MetalsAluminum Buyers Should Hedge Alongside Chinese Importers
China’s primary aluminum importers have significantly increased purchases in recent months due to low global prices and improving arbitrage. Although...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Market StrategyBakken Gas Egress Set To Expand
Northern Border Pipeline has applied to expand capacity by 430 MMcf/d in North Dakota The capacity will be leased to the currently unused Bison ...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
Refined ProductsCan Global Refining Capacity Keep Up With Growing Oil Demand?
The global refining complex is walking a fine line with available capacity as global oil demand surges. The widening gap spells trouble, threatening to dri...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
Natural GasHurricane Season's Potential Impact And Typical Hedging Practices For Gulf of Mexico Producers
The NOAA has revised its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
MetalsDespite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers
The spread between CME HRC Steel and CME MW Busheling Scrap is generally used as a proxy for steel mill profitability. This spread currently sits at about ...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
MetalsGrowing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices
Several larger miners are expanding into secondary aluminum production due to growing scrap supplies and low entry costs, according to the Wall Street Jour...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
Crude OilHow Good/Bad is Your Costless Collar?
Have you ever asked that question? How good or bad is the costless collar I just priced? We have a way of providing historical reference when it comes to o...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
MetalsSteel Buyers Can Strengthen Pricing Power During Industry Consolidation
A potential US Steel acquisition could result in less competition and higher steel prices. HRC steel price risk can be mitigated with very simple hedging s...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Refined ProductsRising Jet Fuel Prices: A Challenge to the Aviation Industry's Recovery
Demand Recovery The first half of 2023 has been promising for the aviation sector. Jet fuel consumption soared to an average of 5.9 MMBbl/d from January t...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
Crude OilTransmountain Pipeline Expansion and Impacts on Canadian Crude Differentials
The Transmountain expansion will significantly increase the amount of egress capacity out of Western Canada when it comes online in 2024 WCS differentia...
· Christian Drolshagen4 min read
LNGHow Will US's LNG Growth Affect Natural Gas Demand and Prices?
The US currently has 14 Bcf/d of peak LNG export capacity in operation, an additional 11.2 Bcf/d under construction or with limited construction already co...
· Rishi Rajanala5 min read
MetalsAluminum Prices Could Hinge on Chinese Stimulus
As we are just past the halfway point in 2023, AEGIS would like to give our customers a quick year-to-date overview of the aluminum market. The strong rall...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
NGLsHedge Ethane To Capture Premium To Natural Gas
Price strength has opened an opportunity to hedge ethane (July 2023). If you have exposure to ethane and gas, opt to hedge ethane. Ethane is currently pri...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Crude OilWTI Flips to Backwardation for First Time Since May
The WTI crude market has shifted into backwardation for the first time since May, signaling tighter supply. Prompt WTI is trading higher than in later mont...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
MetalsCopper Prices Could Remain Subdued While African Production Grows
As of this writing, copper prices at the LME are nearly flat this year, despite subpar demand from top consumer China. Meanwhile, the world’s top pro...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Crude OilIs the Oil Market Poised for a Shake-Up as OPEC Cuts Deepen?
July 7, 2023 - At the beginning of the year, two factors were on every crude analyst’s mind – the impending loss of Russian supply and China&...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
Market StrategyChinese Metals Imports Could Be the Canary in the Coal Mine for Demand
China’s metals demand has faltered for a variety of reasons. The extended COVID lockdowns weighed on Chinese manufacturing activity, construction, an...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Natural GasHouston Ship Channel Basis Post-Freeport LNG Restart: What's the Future?
Natural gas prices in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC) area have tightened significantly versus Henry Hub year-to-date. The return of Freeport LNG just south...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Crude OilCan Saudi's Unilateral Cuts Deepen Oil Market Deficit in 2H2023?
Saudi Arabia's recent announcement of a unilateral production cut of 1 MMBbl/d for July, in addition to OPEC+'s extended cuts through December 2024, may wo...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
Natural GasMVP Pipeline Greenlit: Why it's Not the Market Bear We Feared
More Appalachian gas egress may not be as bearish to Henry Hub as initially thought. The long-delayed 2 Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) was singled ou...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Market StrategyGood Neighbor Rule by Provision of the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) Program
The Good Neighbor Plan ensures that 22 states will meet the Clean Air Act's
· Mike Taylor3 min read
Natural GasWinter Weather Scenarios Show Risk to 2024 Gas Prices
Modeling of different winter weather scenarios shows the need for much cooler than normal weather to balance the gas market Winters have consistently tr...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
RenewablesAEGIS Hedging: Carbon Capture and Inflation Reduction Act Primer
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a range of emissions reduction technologies that captures carbon dioxide (CO2) from large emitters, such as power plants or industrial facilities, and stores it underground so that it is not released into the atmosphere.
· Zander Capozzola9 min read
Market StrategyCobalt End-Users Should Hedge While Market Is Oversupplied
Ample global supplies of cobalt have pressured both CME cobalt prices and Chinese Cobalt Sulfate prices. Prices for both have pushed to pandemic-era lows. ...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
Natural GasWildfire Impact on Canadian Oil and Natural Gas
Fires have greatly reduced oil and natural gas production in Alberta Production volumes have recovered slightly, but weather forecasts indicate fire-rel...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
MetalsCopper Producers Can Benefit From Hedging Both Inputs and Production
To meet rising demand, copper production from established producers such as Chile and Peru has risen dramatically in the past decade. Production costs for ...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
Natural GasAECO Gas Basis Outlook
AECO Outlook With AECO basis trading at one of the highest relative values in recent years, we view this as an attractive point to add basis hedges. Hedge...
· Christian Drolshagen3 min read
Natural GasFrom Record Rain to Hydropower Gain: California's Shifting Energy Mix
Record levels of rain and snow have reversed two years of significantly dryer-than-average conditions in California. This is setting up a major comeback in the state's hydroelectric generation, which has already surged to multi-year highs.
· Christian Drolshagen4 min read
Crude OilRussia's Export Resilience May Falter as Signs of Trade Clogging Emerge
Fuel volumes in floating storage at record highs since 2016, posing a significant threat to Russia's oil exports and crude processing, in addition to the l...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
Market StrategyWhat is Counterparty Risk and What Are Best Practices?
In light of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse and recent banking issues and concerns, AEGIS would like to explain what your counterparty risk looks li...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
RenewablesRenewable Diesel Margins Mixed as Feeds Fall at Varied Rates amid Diesel Losses
US renewable diesel (RD) margins pressed lower as heavy diesel losses were met by an uneven downturn in feedstocks. Biodiesel margins stabilized as the soybean oil to heating oil (BOHO) spread held flat week-over-week as diesel losses were met by a weaker May CBOT Soybean oil (SBO) contract.
· Zander Capozzola2 min read
MetalsWhy Are Steel Prices Increasing?
Most American steel producers have recently raised their base price for physical sales to $1,100/st or higher, up from around $500/st in late November. The...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
RenewablesRenewable Diesel Margins Fall amid ULSD Weakness & Flat RINs
US renewable diesel (RD) margins softened as April Nymex ULSD weakened in choppy trade, while a downturn in feedstocks limited losses. Biodiesel margins made sizeable gains for a second consecutive week as the soybean oil to heating oil (BOHO) spread recovered on diesel strength and as the March C
· Zander Capozzola2 min read
RenewablesRenewable Diesel Margins Mixed amid Diesel Strength & Credit Losses
US renewable diesel (RD) margins were mixed as late-week diesel strength was met by losses in credits and feedstocks. Credit losses weigh on RD margins, while declines in feedstock pricing are supportive of RD margins. Biodiesel margins gained traction as the soybean oil to heating oil (BOHO) spre
· Zander Capozzola2 min read
LNGFreeport LNG Flows At Highest Level Since Explosion
The Freeport LNG export facility has been closely watched by market participants since a fire took the plant offline in June 2022. While Freeport initially...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read
MetalsEuropean Aluminum Smelters Improve, but Not Enough
As of 2/23/2023, AEGIS estimates that approximately 1.16 million mt, or 26% of Europe’s annual smelter capacity, has gone offline since October 2021 ...
· Chris Stadele6 min read
MetalsWill Aluminum's Rally Continue?
LME aluminum prices have rallied nearly 6% so far this year, due in part to an expected recovery in Chinese demand after their government completely remove...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
MetalsPeruvian Protests Could Support Copper Prices
LME copper prices have jumped nearly 11% so far this year, due in part to the political protests and unrest that have created supply chain issues for Peruv...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Refined ProductsNew Fuel Regulations Threaten Fuel Fungibility and Price Discovery
New renewable-fuel regulations and an all-or-nothing push for E15 sales could threaten fuel fungibility, increase costs, and upend the world's most mature ...
· Zander Capozzola4 min read
MetalsNickel Prices Could Remain Volatile Into 2023
LME nickel prices are down over 8% so far in 2023. However, this pullback is relatively small, given nickel finished up over 44% last year, making it one o...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
Market StrategyCommodity Trading Advisors (CTAs): Speculators or Risk Mitigators?
An article in the Wall Street Journal describes how one type of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are wielding outsized influence in the oil futures markets, as both a bullish and bearish force. Yet, the article is incomplete in one important way: not all CTAs are speculators.
· William Townsend3 min read
MetalsNickel Prices Rally While 2023 Supply Picture Remains Unclear
LME nickel prices are up nearly 5% in December. Similarly, nickel is up 36% on the year, making it one of the best-performing LME metals. AEGIS notes that ...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
RenewablesEPA Set Rule Rattles RIN Markets
Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) are unique codes used to track biofuels as they move through the fuel supply chain. RINs serve as the currency of c...
· Zander Capozzola14 min read
RenewablesEPA's 'Set Rule' Drives Volatility in Renewable Diesel Margins
The EPA’s 'Set Rule,' which lays out the nation’s blend mandates for various renewables from 2023 through 2025, will drive increased volatility...
· Zander Capozzola3 min read
Natural GasGas is now down $1.22 since Friday. Take action?
NYMEX natural gas was down $1.22 in two days, touching $5.32 this morning. Has it found support this morning, finally? Risk has changed; fundamentals are s...
· Nick Hillman2 min read
Refined ProductsRetail Diesel Prices Hit the Lowest Since February
Could falling demand and rising inventories be to blame for the sharp decline in diesel prices? December 14, 2022 - U.S. Retail diesel prices have been ...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
MetalsCould Peruvian Protests Affect Zinc Production or Prices?
LME zinc prices have jumped over 12% since the lows of early November but are still down about 13% on the year. AEGIS notes that the recent uptick in price...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Crude OilWhat is the Fallout of the EU-G7 Price Cap?
Updated December 9, 2022 What happened The G7 nations, along with the European Union, implemented a price cap of $60/Bbl on Russian crude on Monday, Dece...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
LNGHouston Ship Channel Basis Has Been Weak; Will It Continue?
Houston Ship Channel (HSC) prompt-month has been under heavy selling pressure since mid-2022. Is the Freeport LNG 2 Bcf/d outage squarely to blame, or are other forces pushing HSC lower? Will HSC will longer-term headwinds as supply growth in Texas continues?
· Jay Stevens2 min read
MetalsDoes the Copper Rally Have Legs?
LME Copper prices surged over 10% in November, the first monthly price gain since April 2022. AEGIS notes that the recent uptick in prices could be tied to...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Market StrategyHow Could a Potential Railway Strike Impact Commodities?
A railway strike could shut down the flow of commodities across the US and have widespread effects on products from electricity to agriculture. Railway la...
· Christian Drolshagen4 min read
MetalsDo Chinese Aluminum Import and Export Flows Affect LME Prices?
The price levels of $1,500/mt, $2,700/mt, and $3,300/mt seem to be important inflection points for LME Aluminum prices. We largely attribute this to Chines...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
LNGUS On Track To Export More LNG at Domestic Demand Peak
Freeport LNG is on track to resume exports in December, but it could be longer before the facility is consuming at its 2-Bcf/d demonstrated capacity rate. ...
· Nick Hillman3 min read
MetalsAEGIS Primer on LME Aluminum Price History
The Russia-Ukraine conflict caused LME aluminum prices to eclipse $4,000 in early March 2022. Prices have tumbled since then and are down about 45% from the highs and about 20% on the year. However, prices are still holding at a historically high level.
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Refined ProductsU.S. Refining Margins Hit an All-Time High
Refinery outages, high fuel demand, and low inventories are setting up a perfect storm for the refined products market ahead of winter.
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
MetalsEuropean Aluminum Smelters Might Have Negative Margins Through 2023
Aluminum smelting is a very electricity-incentive business; therefore, some smelters could be susceptible to electricity price shocks. Since October 2021, ...
· Chris Stadele7 min read
Natural GasNatural Gas Supply-Demand Explainer
Gas inventories are a major (on some days, largest) source of supply in the winter. A storage deficit this year raises the risk of extremely high prices th...
· Christian Drolshagen5 min read
Refined ProductsAre Weak Diesel Prices Hinting Economic Trouble?
CME New York Harbor diesel futures have plunged, possibly signaling a slowdown in fuel-powered industries, including trucking, farming, and rail Septemb...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
Crude OilMore Iran Supply Likely Soon? U.S., Iran negotiating JCPOA
The U.S., Europe, and Iran have been trying to reach a consensus to bring all parties back into accordance with the JCPOA since then U.S.-President Donald ...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
Natural GasNatural Gas Is Losing Demand Fast
Natural gas has quickly lost the demand it gained during hot weather this summer. This new dynamic means the power market is desperate for gas as fuel on b...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
MetalsWill Chilean Production Issues Drive Copper Prices Higher?
Production issues from the world's largest copper miner, Codelco, could lead to a copper price rally. Codelco cited declining ore grades, lower recovery levels and halted projects due to worker fatalities; for the decline in production and delaying of future endeavors.
· Chris Stadele2 min read
MetalsChinese Aluminum Supply Issues Could Rally Prices
China, which is the largest aluminum producer and exporter, is experiencing potentially bullish production issues. Sichuan province, a key production area that is experiencing a severe drought, has temporarily shuttered all its aluminum production due to power rationing.
· Chris Stadele2 min read
MetalsZinc Prices Are On The Rebound Due To Supply Issues
Zinc prices surged over 6% in early trade on Tuesday, August 16 after Trafigura announced it will be shutting down one of Europe's largest smelters beginning next month due to high electricity prices.
· Chris Stadele2 min read
Natural GasNew Inflation Legislation Could Lead to Approval of Mountain Valley Pipeline
Inflation and political bargaining over new legislation may finally be what leads to the completion of the long-awaited Mountain Valley pipeline. &nbs...
· Christian Drolshagen4 min read
MetalsAluminum prices are finding support: Consumers can lock in lower costs in 2023 and beyond
Aluminum prices could be fishing for a bottom. The LME 3M Select contract dropped by 13.1% in 1H 2022 but is nearly unchanged this quarter (11:00 AM CST 8/...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Market StrategyRussia Finds New Alumina Supply
China’s exports of alumina to Russia surged again last month. Of the 190,000 mt China exported, 184,000 mt, or 96.8%, went to Russia, according to Re...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
Crude OilCostless Collars and Put-skew In The Oil Market
Option structures are useful tools to deploy in risk management. They provide more latitude for hedging than the more straightforward swap. Hedging with sw...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
MetalsAmerican Automotive Production is on the Rebound
Pent-up consumer demand for new cars, trucks, and SUVs will lead to higher steel shipments in 2H 2022, according to steel producer Cleveland Cliffs. The co...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
Refined ProductsOil-Refining Crunch and There's No Fix in Sight
A potential supply crisis is on the horizon as fewer domestic refineries produce a greater portion of the country's refined products United States' ener...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
Market StrategyInterest in Hedging Cobalt is Increasing
The CME started cobalt futures in late 2020, but volume and open interest has only picked up in recent months. In fact, open interest has nearly doubled from 2,480 contracts on June 2, 2022, to 5,091 contracts on July 18, 2022.
· Chris Stadele2 min read
MetalsHave Copper Prices Begun to Find a Bottom?
LME Copper 3M Select plunged by 20.5% in 2Q, the most significant drawdown since 2011, as slumping demand due to COVID lockdowns in China and fears over a ...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Refined ProductsFederal Gasoline Tax Cuts Could be a Bullish Catalyst for Oil, Fuels Prices
Oil demand could move even higher if the lower retail gasoline prices encourage more transportation fuel demand. We are in the early innings of the...
· Nick Hillman3 min read
LNGLost LNG Demand Weighs On Houston Ship Channel Basis
The unplanned shutdown of Freeport LNG has put downward pressure on the Houston Ship Channel (HSC) basis. Supply that otherwise would have fed the 2 Bcf/d ...
· Jay Stevens1 min read
MetalsWhat is Green Steel Anyways?
Production of green steel is set to increase in the coming years as producers aim to reduce their carbon footprint. Steel production is among the thr...
· Chris Stadele6 min read
LNGFreeport LNG outage update sends gas 16.5% lower
Natural gas prices found a floor, with the prompt now trading $1.10, or 16.5% lower at $7.21 after Freeport LNG provided an update on the expected duration...
· Rishi Rajanala1 min read
Refined ProductsProducer Consuming Diesel? Hedge The Crack
Many oil and gas producers consume diesel in their daily operations. As diesel prices have hit new record highs, producers have paid more attention to this...
· Jay Stevens1 min read
MetalsSection 232 Tariffs: Most relevant developments (AEGIS Reference)
Most recent developments (5/11/2022) Public hearings on the economic impact of Section 232 import tariffs on steel and aluminum will begin in July 20...
· Chris Stadele6 min read
Natural GasWaha Winter Basis Rebounds; Midstreamers Expanding
May 23, 2022 - As shown in the chart below, the Waha basis for Winter ‘23/’24 was near -40c at the beginning of the year, and as of mid...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
MetalsIndia's Steel Exports Tariffs Shock Producers
With no warning, India stunned its steel industry last Saturday by enacting a 15% tariff on HRC and CRC steel exports, effective May 22. One major ...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
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