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Commentary Outlook & Notes Market-Relevant Events Infrastructure Supply Chart Pack
Updated August 15, 2025
Production has fallen back to 2024 levels after reaching year-to-date highs on July24. Demand continues to outperform 2024 and track along 2023 levels. Since bottoming in April, regional basis prices have rallied back to February levels. A cold winter helped keep basis price positive across the basin in the face of high storage. A major decline in price from mid-January to early April coincided with declining heating demand and a sudden rise in Henry Hub pricing. We expect pricing to remain volatile throughout summer as storage and production remain elevated.
August 15: Basis pricing at CIG has remained steady over the past month with little movement throughout the forward curve. Between July 15 and August 15, the Winter 25/26 strip has fallen $0.0225 from -$0.0325 to -$0.055 but traded as high as $0.0375 and as low as -$0.08. It's a similar story for the Summer 26 strip with pricing down $0.0253 from -$0.7547 on July 15 to -$0.78 on August 15. However, West Coast price declines have brought NWP Rockies basis pricing down over the past 30 days. Currently Winter 25/26 basis is down $0.135 over the past month to $0.4298 with much of that drop coinciding wtih selling pressure in the middle of last week. Summer 26 has also fallen but to a lesser degree, only losing $0.065 over the past month to trade -$0.55.
August 1: Basis prices across the Rockies have been stable for the past two weeks. The now prompt September CIG basis contract is down 6.5c from -$0.695 on 7/21 to -$0.76 intrady on 8/1. Over the same two weeks, the Nov25-Mar26 strip has gained 2.5c moving from -$0.03 to -$0.005. It's a similar story throughout the forward curve with most months between Nov25-Jan28 gaining slightly over the past 10 trading days. NWP Rockies' basis has also traded sideways in the past two weeks. The front of the curve, through Dec25, is a touch lower while the remainder of the forward curve is flat.
July 18: Basis forward curves have traded sideways for the first half of the month. The August CIG basis price opened trading on July 1 at -$0.6175 and currently at -$0.580 intraday on July 18. It's a similar pattern down the basis curve as Winter 25/26 and Summer 26 are down $0.045 and $0.02 respectively since the start of July. NWP Rockies basis has been a bit more volatile with the August contract trading as high as -$0.2225 intraday on July 9 but falling to -$0.40 as of July 18. A rebound in Henry Hub pricing and regional production near seasonal highs could put some short term pressure on basis pricing.
July 7: Persistent heat across the West Coast and Rockies has led to a rapid strengthening of prompt month basis pricing. Forecasts remain warm for the remainder of the month with July expected to be warmer than normal. In the past two weeks, the prompt month August CIG basis price has rallied from -$0.83 on 6/23 to -$0.5175 intraday 7/7. With price trading inside -$0.55, this is the best price for the August contract since January. The move also continues throughout what remains of the summer strip with the October basis contract rising from -$1.045 on 6/23 to trade -$0.74 as of the close on 7/3. NWP Rockies basis has also strengthened, with the August contract rallying from -$0.56 on 6/23 to -$0.36 intraday 7/7.
Price action will continue to be heavily weather driven and influenced by adjacent regions as the Rockies looks to push gas out during the summer and meet regional demand during winter. No significant changes to pipeline egress capacity are expected over the next few years. However, there will be small increases in pipeline capacity from a few pipeline expansions throughout late 2025 and early 2026.
CIG Rockies & NWP Rockies Basis Outlook and Notes
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Summer '25
Regional storage has dropped to a deficit compared to 2024 but remains well above the 5-year average
Production remains steady to 2024 levels, hovering around 8.1 Bcf/d so far in 2025
Regional pricing will continue to be heavily influenced by adjacent regions: Midwest, Midcontinent, West Coast and Permian
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Winter '25-'26
Cold winter weather across the West Coast and Rockies provide low probability but highly impactful upside potential
Williams' expects its 325 MMcf/d expansion of MountainWest Overthrust Pipeline to be online in 4Q25. The additional capacity will allow more eastern Rockies gas to flow to premium western markets
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Summer '26
Shoulder seasons (spring/fall) look particularly susceptible to low prices as demand evaporates, and production expectations remain robust
Forward curves across the Rockies and Midcontinent look to already reflect this reality with Summer 26 price trending steadily lower the past 18 months
Additional supply coming from the Bakken into Cheyenne/CIG could pose additional pressure in 2026 as the Bakken Xpress project is scheduled to be completed in March 2026
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For more discussion on basis price moves and the current forward curves:
For more discussion and charts, jump to our outlook and chart pack. Remember, the local market is influenced by the broader gas market. Consult our Gas Macro Outlook for more.
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Recent Market-Relevant Events
7.24.2025
Tallgrass to partner with Crusoe to power AI datacenter in southeast Wyoming
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6.24.2025
Canadian exports to Rockies/PacNW hit low as LNG Canada ramps up
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6.14.2025
Tallgrass secures anchor shippers for new pipeline
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A lack of production growth since 2020 has meant pipeline egress capacity has not been challenged by production. However, there are limitations and constraints within the basin to move gas from east to west from CIG/Cheyenne to NWP Rockies/OPAL. Expectations are the basin will continue to have available egress out of each major corridor. A few in basin pipeline projects will also help move natural gas intrabasin.

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For a discussion of production outlook:
Below are the most market-relevant infrastructure projects that appear to be funded and going forward. The projects that offer intra-region capacity (egress) are also shown in the chart above.
Note: Deeper discussion included below the map.
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Major Pipeline Corridors Out of The Rockies
Gas Pipeline Flows
Gas Pipeline Projects
MountainWest Overthrust Westbound Expansion
In-service date: 4Q25
Capacity: 0.3 Bcf/d
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Source: Williams
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MountainWest Overthrust Expansion - Williams has started construction on its 0.33 Bcf/d westbound expansion from Wamsutter to Opal. The project is expected to be in service in 4Q25, delivering additional supply to the premium NWP Rockies market.
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Bison Xpress
In-service date: March 2026
Capacity: 0.3 Bcf/d
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Source: TC Energy
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Bison Xpress - TC Energy is working to increase capacity on the Northern Border Pipeline (NBPL) system by replacing three existing compression stations. The increased capacity of 300 MMcf/d will be leased by Wyoming Interstate Company as part of its Bakken Xpress Project. In addition, the project would allow bidirectional natural gas flow on TC's Bison pipeline.
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Bakken Xpress
In-service date: March 2026
Capacity: 0.3 Bcf/d
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Source: NGI, Kinder Morgan
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Bakken Xpress - Kinder Morgan's connection to the Bison Xpress project, which will provide egress south from Bison pipeline to Cheyenne via the Fort Union Gas Gathering system and Wyoming Interstate Pipeline.
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Tallgrass Permian-to-REX Pipeline
In-service date: late 2028
Capacity: 2.4 Bcf/d
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Source: S&P, Tallgrass
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Tallgrass Permian-to-REX Pipeline - Tallgrass Energy plans to build a 2.4 Bcf/d greenfield pipeline linking the Permian Basin to the Rockies Express Pipeline (REX), targeting a late 2028 in-service date. The project has secured anchor shipper agreements, enabling it to move forward pending regulatory and corporate approval. The pipeline will enhance access to Midwest and Plains markets via REX and Tallgrass Interstate Gas Transmission (TIGT), with optional flows westward through Ruby and Overthrust.
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REX/Cheyenne Connector Enhancement
In-service date: 2Q28
Capacity: 0.25 Bcf/d
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REX/Cheyenne Connector Enhancement - Rockies Express, Cheyenne Connector and East Cheyenne Gas Storage jointly filed an application to FERC requesting authorization for Rex to lease 250,000 Dt/d capacity on Cheyenne Connector and build a new 153 mile 24" pipeline to Colorado Springs. The application submitted on August 15 is the latest in a series of announcements by Tallgrass to enhance its ability to meet local demand in the Rockies. |
Local Supply
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Expectations are natural gas supply in the Rockies will remain flat for the next few years. Supply within the basin has been on a downtrend since the beginning of 2020, hitting a low in March 2023 of roughly 7.4 Bcf/d. Since rebounding off those March 2023 lows, production has been relatively steady across 2024 and 2025 at about 8.0 Bcf/d. This is over 1 Bcf/d lower than the production rate in January 2020.
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Operator Guidance
Civitas Resources (Q2 2025 EC)
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08/07/2025
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2025 Guidance:
Companywide CapEx is unchanged at $1.8-$1.9 billion with a slight downward adjustment to overall production after expected DJ asset divestiture to be finalized in 3Q25
Expect overall production to be 321-334 MBoe/d for full year 2025
Expect oil production to be 148-153 MBbl/d for full year 2025
Key Basin Activity:
$435 million non-core DJ asset sale to be completed in 3Q25, reducing production by ~10 MBoe/d
Inferred DJ basin production estimates for full year 2025 are 140-145 MBoe/d (63-68 MBbl/d)
Analyst Q&A Takeaways:
In 2026, exepcting a flat maintenance capital level of $150-$155 million with flat production
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Williams (Q2 2025 EC)
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08/05/2025
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2025 Guidance:
Increased adjusted EBITDA guidance by $50 million, targeting $7.75 billion midpoint
Key Basin Activity:
MountainWest Overtrust Expansion (UT/WY): 325 MMcf/d; in-service 4Q25
Numerous Mountainwest and Northwest expansion projects underway and expected online over the next three years
Emphasis on gas takeaway and market access for western rockies supply and expansions for power gen growth and coal-to-gas conversions
Analyst Q&A Takeaways:
Currently holding an open season for Rockies Columbia Connector to expand capacity on Northwest Pipeline by 650,000 Dth/d to serve the PacNW
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EOG (Q2 2025 EC)
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08/07/2025
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2025 Guidance:
Increased free cash flow estimates for full year to $4.3 billion (up 10% from prior quarter forecast)
Key Basin Activity:
Powder River Basin (PRB) assets are not seen as core growth driver and saw capital cut to this basin amid softer macro backdrop
Not expecting to materially increase production in 2025
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Occidental Petroleum (Q2 2025 EC)
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08/07/2025
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2025 Guidance:
Maintain full year production guidance of 1,400-1,430 MBoe/d, tightening the expected production range from 1Q
Key Basin Activity:
Rockies production outperformed slightly in 2Q by 5 MBoe/d compared to prior estimates
Full year production guidance for Rockies is 271-277 MBoe/d
No active development highlighted in the Rockies signaling basin may act as swing play for OXY
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Local Demand
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Demand in the Rockies varies wildly between Winter and Summer. Winter demand averages roughly 3.5 Bcf/d compared to 1.5 Bcf/d across the Summer. However, the overall demand has been steady the past five years with no expectations for a shift in those dynamics. The basin will continue to rely on moving gas out of the region, supplying the West Coast, Midwest and Midcontinent.
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Recent Market-Relevant events
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Tallgrass partners with Crusoe to power AI Datacenter in southeast Wyoming
(July 24, 2025)
Market Impact: On its surface, additional regional demand should benefit regional basis pricing
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Tallgrass and Crusoe have announced a partnership to develp a 1.8 gigawatt (GW) datacenter in Southeast Wyoming
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The datacenter will "leverage diverse power strategy...fueled by natural gas and reneweable energy"
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Initial plans are the 1.8 GW datacenter will be scalable to 10 GW of capacity over time
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Canadian Gas Exports to Rockies/PacNW Hit 2025 Low as LNG Canada Starts Production
(June 24, 2025)
Market Impact: Lower natural gas imports from Canada should support western US basis pricing moving forward
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Canadian natural gas exports to the Rockies/PacNW fell to 3.48 Bcf/d in June, the lowest monthly average of 2025 and 0.74 Bcf/d below January levels, amid soft Pacific Northwest demand and rising domestic competition
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The start of production at LNG Canada Phase 1 (targeting ~2 Bcf/d) is emerging as a new structural factor reducing westbound export flows, as Canadian supply increasingly stays north to serve LNG demand
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The declining exports, paired with LNG Canada's ramp-up, signal increased Canadian gas competition in western North American markets and point to higher price volatility ahead, especially into winter
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Tallgrass Secures Anchor Shippers for New Permian-to-REX Pipeline Targeting Late 2028 Start
(June 14, 2025)
Market Impact: This should weigh on CIG pricing later in the decade as Permian gas further supplies the Rockies and adjacent demand markets
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Tallgrass has signed anchor shipper precedent agreements to support the construction of a pipeline from the Permian Basin to the Rockies Express Pipeline (REX), unlocking up to 2.4 Bcf/d of new natural gas takeaway capacity
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These commitments provide financial justification for project buildout, targeting in-service by late 2028, contingent on final regulatory and corporate approvals
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The pipeline will provide access to REX's east-west backbone, linking Permian gas to Midwest, Rockies, and Northeast markets
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The project could help alleviate future Permian gas bottlenecks, improve basis differentials, and support AI-driven power demand and reshoring -related industrial growth across multiple U.S. regions
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Williams MountainWest Overthrust Expansion Underway, In-Service by 4Q 2025
(March 03, 2025)
Market impact: Price spreads between CIG and NWP Rockies should tighten as additional gas moves west across the basin
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Williams began construction on its MountainWest Overthrust expansion in April 2025, with 4Q 2025 targeted for in-service, per maintenance schedule
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The expansion will add 325 MMcf/d of new westbound capacity to the Opal hub (Wyoming), bolstering east to west natural gas flows in the Rockies
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The construction schedule includes multiple compression upgrades and station outages spanning April to October, with some segments experiencing 100% nomination cuts during work windows
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Once complete, the project should tighten regional price spreads and position Williams to capture stronger western flows amid Canadian competition and renewables intermittency
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