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Commentary Outlook & Notes Market-Relevant Events Infrastructure Supply Chart Pack
Regional basis prices continue to weaken as the market is in the spring shoulder season. Over the past two years, prompt-month prices have typically bottomed in April or May, suggesting the potential for further downside risk in the near term. Production remains robust and is tracking near the upper end of the seasonal range observed over the past five years, while demand has slipped toward the lower end of the same range-similar to levels seen in 2024. These supply-demand dynamics are unlikely to ease storage pressure, with inventories continuing to set new five-year highs for this time of year.
April 17: We continue to see basis prices move sideways in the Rockies. Trading activity through Summer 27 was sporadic across both CIG Rockies basis and NWP Rockies basis outside of consistent selling pressure in Summer 27 NWP Rockies. Overall, the prompt month contract at both points was down about 3c on the week, settling near -$1.75 on April 17. Due to the selling pressure, Summer 27 NWP Rockies basis fell 2.5c to -$0.855.
April 10: Basis prices across the Rockies are little changed week-over-week. Prompt month, May26, basis price for CIG is trading -$1.750 intraday on Friday, April 10 while NWP Rockies basis is trading -$1.7375. Both basis locations are down 5c from last week's settle. Trade activity for each has been skewed to selling with Tuesday 4/7 being the most active day for sellers, pushing prices to weekly lows that day. Trading was less active throughout the forward curve with Winter '26/'27 pricing unchanged on the week.
March 27: April Rockies basis prices are set to end the week slightly lower. Apr26 NWP Rockies basis is trading -$1.702 intraday, down from -$1.614 to close March 20. CIG Rockies basis traded in a similar fashion, falling to -$1.770 intraday Friday compared to -$1.6165 a week prior. Looking at a longer time frame, the forward curves are continuing to depreciate with both NOv26-Mar27 and Apr27-Oct27 tenors across the basin continuing their gradual slide lower since the start of winter.
March 20: Rockies basis prices are set to end the week higher with Apr26 CIG Rockies basis up to -$1.621 after ending last week at -$1.7625. NWP Rockies basis pricing is also marginally higher with the prompt April contract up to -$1.5985 after closing at -$1.75 on March 17. The forward curve is up through Summer 2026 with very little change in price week-over-week starting Winter '26/'27.
March 11: Following a brief rebound after Winter Storm Fern, CIG Rockies and NWP Rockies basis prices have resumed a modest downtrend. Prompt-month CIG Rockies basis rallied to -$1.31 on February 9 before steadily weakening to -$1.725 intraday on March 11. NWP Rockies basis followed a similar path, peaking at -$1.27 on February 9 and sliding to -$1.715 intraday on March 11. Looking ahead, forward curves suggest additional downside. June 2026 futures are currently priced at the lowest levels on the strip, with NWP Rockies at -$1.7395 and CIG Rockies at -$1.7895.
January 16: The selloff in the prompt month contract has continued as the Feb26 CIG basis price has fallen to -$0.950 from +$0.220 on October 31. There has been a bit more buying pressure in Summer26, helping keep price action slightly more stable. The Summer26 contract is down to only -$1.045 from -$0.8225 on October 31. It's a very similar story at NWP Rockies as the Feb26 contract price has fallen to -$0.935 from +$0.430 on October 31. Summer26 NWP Rockies basis is down to -$1.0125.
Price action will continue to be heavily weather driven and influenced by adjacent regions as the Rockies looks to push gas out during the summer and meet regional demand during winter. No significant changes to pipeline egress capacity are expected over the next few years. However, there will be small increases in pipeline capacity from a few pipeline expansions throughout 2026 and 2027 intrabasin.
CIG Rockies & NWP Rockies Basis Outlook and Notes
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Summer '26
Shoulder seasons (spring/fall) look particularly susceptible to low prices as demand evaporates, and production expectations remain robust
De-risk on strength
Additional supply coming from the Bakken into Cheyenne/CIG could pose additional pressure in 2026 as the Bakken Xpress project is scheduled to be completed in May 2026
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Winter '26-'27
Basis pricing during Winter will remain susceptible to price appreciation should sustained cold materialize for the West Coast, Rockies, or Midwest regions although supply remains robust
When available take advantage of basis prices that are a premium to Henry Hub to de-risk the portfolio
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Summer '27
Take advantage of forward curves pricing in additional demand across 2027 (likely to be associated with Crusoe's Wyoming data center campus)
Summer '27 prices are likely to have more downside risk than upside appreciation if production and storage remain at or above the five-year highs over the next twelve months
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For more discussion on basis price moves and the current forward curves:
For more discussion and charts, jump to our outlook and chart pack. Remember, the local market is influenced by the broader gas market. Consult our Gas Macro Outlook for more.
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Recent Market-Relevant Events
01.08.2026
Laramie County as approved the Crusoe AI datacenter in southeast Wyoming powered by Tallgrass
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06.24.2025
Canadian exports to Rockies/PacNW hit low as LNG Canada ramps up
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06.14.2025
Tallgrass secures anchor shippers for new Permian-to-REX pipeline
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A lack of production growth since 2020 has meant pipeline egress capacity has not been challenged by production. However, there are limitations and constraints within the basin to move gas from east to west from CIG/Cheyenne to NWP Rockies/OPAL. Expectations are the basin will continue to have available egress out of each major corridor. A few in basin pipeline projects will also help move natural gas intrabasin.
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For a discussion of production outlook:
Below are the most market-relevant infrastructure projects that appear to be funded and going forward. The projects that offer intra-region capacity (egress) are also shown in the chart above.
Note: Deeper discussion included below the map.
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Major Pipeline Corridors Out of The Rockies
Gas Pipeline Flows
Gas Pipeline Projects
Rockies Express Pipeline Switchgrass Interconnect
In-service date: No specific in-service date provided
Capacity: 0.42 Bcf/d
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Rockies Express Pipeline Swithgrass Interconnect - Rockies Express Pipeline, LLC filed a notice of request to "construct, own, operate, and maintain" a new 36-inch-diameter pipeline (Switchgrass Interconnect) between Weld County, Colorado and Laramie County, Wyoming. Specifics are scarce but it reasons the pipeline would be built in conjunction with Crusoe's Project Jade data center complex. Completion of the first set of buildings is targeted for 2027.
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Bison Xpress
In-service date: May 2026
Capacity: 0.3 Bcf/d
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Source: TC Energy
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Bison Xpress - TC Energy is working to increase capacity on the Northern Border Pipeline (NBPL) system by replacing three existing compression stations. The increased capacity of 300 MMcf/d will be leased by Wyoming Interstate Company as part of its Bakken Xpress Project. In addition, the project would allow bidirectional natural gas flow on TC's Bison pipeline.
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Bakken Xpress
In-service date: May 2026
Capacity: 0.3 Bcf/d
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Source: NGI, Kinder Morgan
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Bakken Xpress - Kinder Morgan's connection to the Bison Xpress project, which will provide egress south from Bison pipeline to Cheyenne via the Fort Union Gas Gathering system and Wyoming Interstate Pipeline.
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Tallgrass Permian-to-REX Pipeline
In-service date: late 2028
Capacity: 2.4 Bcf/d
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Source: S&P, Tallgrass
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Tallgrass Permian-to-REX Pipeline - Tallgrass Energy plans to build a 2.4 Bcf/d greenfield pipeline linking the Permian Basin to the Rockies Express Pipeline (REX), targeting a late 2028 in-service date. The project has secured anchor shipper agreements, enabling it to move forward pending regulatory and corporate approval. The pipeline will enhance access to Midwest and Plains markets via REX and Tallgrass Interstate Gas Transmission (TIGT), with optional flows westward through Ruby and Overthrust.
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REX/Cheyenne Connector Enhancement
In-service date: 2Q28
Capacity: 0.25 Bcf/d
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| REX/Cheyenne Connector Enhancement - Rockies Express, Cheyenne Connector and East Cheyenne Gas Storage jointly filed an application to FERC requesting authorization for Rex to lease 250,000 Dt/d capacity on Cheyenne Connector and build a new 153 mile 24" pipeline to Colorado Springs. The application submitted on August 15 is the latest in a series of announcements by Tallgrass to enhance its ability to meet local demand in the Rockies. |
Local Supply
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Production made a noticeable jump at the end of 2025, averaging nearly 8.3 Bcf/d since November 1, 2025, and reaching over 8.4 Bcf/d on a few occasions according to S&P. On a seasonal basis Winter '25/'26 production has averaged its second highest average over the past five winters, only behind Winter '23/'24. Meanwhile, the rig count across the Rockies continues at levels above 2024 and 2025 levels.
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Operator Guidance
SM Energy (Q4 2025 EC)
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02/26/2026
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2026 Guidance
Production Outlook
Second-half 2026 production expected to average:
420-430 Mboe/d
~55% oil mix
Management indicated this 2H run-rate represents the cleanest forward baseline for modeling the company's operations
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights
Civitas Merges Integration
SM Energy is integrating Civitas Resources assets, creating a significantly larger multi-basin portfolio
Total integration value could reach:
$1.5B present value
Roughly 30% of SM Energy's market capitalization
Drilling & Basin Activity
The DJ Basin remains an important Rockies asset within the combines SM-Civitas portfolio
Management noted that slowing drilling activity in the DJ Basin allows the company to:
Integrate Civitas technical teams
Optimize development plans
Improve capital efficiency before accelerating drilling again
The Uinta Basin is expected to be one of the company's growth areas, driven by:
Multiple stacked pay zones
Strong well economics
High-return drilling inventory
Management specifically highlighted Uinta and South Texas as growth regions within the portfolio
Analyst Q&A Takeaways
Free Cash Flow Focus:
Management repeatedly emphasized that the 2026 program prioritizes value over volume, with drilling levels intentionally reduced to maximize free cash flow generation
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Williams (Q4 2025 EC)
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02/10/2026
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2026 Guidance
2026 Upstream Production (Opal Processing Plant, WY)
Natural Gas: 180-229 MMBtu/d
Oil: 7-9 Mbbl/d
NGLs: 11-13 Mbbl/d
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights
LNG Infrastructure
The Line 200 pipeline project will transport gas to the Woodside LNG project, creating a critical link between Haynesville supply and LNG exports
Western Infrastructure Expansion
Overthrust Westbound Expansion (325 MMcf/d): 2025 In-Service
Kelso-Beaver Reliability Project (183 MMcf/d): 2028 In-Service
Naughton Coal-to-Gas Conversion (98 MMcf/d): 2026 In-Service
Ryckman Creek Lateral (50 MMcf/d): 2026 In-Service
Wild Trail (83 MMcf/d): 2027 In-Service
Huntingdon Connector (78 MMcf/d): 2026 In-Service
Green River West Expansion (64 MMcf/d): 2027 In-Service
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EOG Resources (Q4 2025 EC)
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02/25/2026
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2026 Guidance
2026 Production Outlook:
Oil production growth: ~5% YoY
Total production growth: ~13% YoY
Production growth is driven primarily by development across Delaware Basin, Utica, Eagle Ford, and Dorado gas play, with activity balanced across EOG's multi-basin portfolio
Drilling & Basin Activity
2026 Activity Program
585 net wells planned across the portfolio
Average 24 drilling rigs
10 completion crews
EOS's Rocky Mountain region (Powder River + Williston) remains a steady contributor to the company's multi-basin portfolio
Rockies footprint:
~1.1 million net acres
~85 wells planned for 2026
3 drilling rigs
3 frac crews
Activity in these basins focuses on capital-efficient oil development with associated gas production, rather than pure gas growth
Analyst Q&A Takeaways
Management emphasized continued expansion of the Dorado gas play, which exited 2025 producing ~750 MMcf/d and is expected to reach roughly ~1 Bcf/d exit production by the end of 2026
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Occidental Petroleum (Q4 2025 EC)
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02/19/2026
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2026 Guidance:
Total Production:
~1.45 MMBoe/d (+1% YoY)
2025 production was 1.434 MMBoe/d (record year)
Capital Program (2026):
$5.5-$5.9B (Down $550MM YoY ex-OxyChem)
~70% allocated to U.S. onshore
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights
Permian Gas Optimization:
Midstream outperformed due to gas marketing optimization in the Permian
Q4 midstream earnings exceeded guidance by $172MM (transport optimization)
Gas Takeaway & Basis Implications:
2026 midstream earnings expected slightly lower as Permian gas takeaway capacity increases
Drilling & Basin Activity:
Permian:
US conventional capital down $400MM YoY
Achieved:
7% lower well costs
5% lower facilities costs
2.5 fewer rigs, 2 fewer frac crews
Permian production: +4% YoY
Analysts Q&A Takeaways:
Structural Cost Improvements Are Durable:
Savings are operational, not deferrals
50% more wells drilled per rig since 2023
Simul-frac expanded to ~40% of US position
Permian Gas Transportation Margins Likely to Normalize:
2026 midstream earnings expected slightly lower as takeaway expands
Macro View (Supply Tightness 2027+)
Global reserve replacement ratio <25%
Supply-demand balance expected to tighten by 2027
While oil-focused, tightening supply would indirectly support associated gas economics
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Local Demand
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Demand in the Rockies varies wildly between Winter and Summer. This winter has been particularly poor with demand seasonally the lowest since at least the Winter of 2015-2016. Currently, Winter '25/'26 regional demand is on pace to average just 2.25 Bcf/d, 1.50 Bcf/d less than a year ago and 1.39 Bcf/d less than the average for the past five winters. Even after accounting for gas leaving the basin, total demand plus outflow is the lowest going back to at least 2015/2016 and is only averaging 8.4 Bcf/d.
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Recent Market-Relevant events
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Wyoming Approves Data Center Campus That Includes 2.7 GW of New Natural Gas Fired Generation
(January 8, 2025)
Market Impact: Additional regional demand should benefit regional basis pricing
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Laramie County, Wyoming approved Project Jade, an AI data center campus by Crusoe, and the BFC Power and Cheyenne Power Hub
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The datacenter complex will consist of a 1.8 gigawatt data center designed to scale up to 10 gigawatts as well as corresponding power generation capacity
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Initial power needs will be supported by 2.7 gigawatt of natural gas fired generation or roughly 0.45 Bcf/d of natural gas
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The project is anticipated to bring its first phase online in mid-2027
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Canadian Gas Exports to Rockies/PacNW Hit 2025 Low as LNG Canada Starts Production
(June 24, 2025)
Market Impact: Lower natural gas imports from Canada should support western US basis pricing moving forward
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Canadian natural gas exports to the Rockies/PacNW fell to 3.48 Bcf/d in June, the lowest monthly average of 2025 and 0.74 Bcf/d below January levels, amid soft Pacific Northwest demand and rising domestic competition
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The start of production at LNG Canada Phase 1 (targeting ~2 Bcf/d) is emerging as a new structural factor reducing westbound export flows, as Canadian supply increasingly stays north to serve LNG demand
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The declining exports, paired with LNG Canada's ramp-up, signal increased Canadian gas competition in western North American markets and point to higher price volatility ahead, especially into winter
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Tallgrass Secures Anchor Shippers for New Permian-to-REX Pipeline Targeting Late 2028 Start
(June 14, 2025)
Market Impact: This should weigh on CIG pricing later in the decade as Permian gas further supplies the Rockies and adjacent demand markets
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Tallgrass has signed anchor shipper precedent agreements to support the construction of a pipeline from the Permian Basin to the Rockies Express Pipeline (REX), unlocking up to 2.4 Bcf/d of new natural gas takeaway capacity
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These commitments provide financial justification for project buildout, targeting in-service by late 2028, contingent on final regulatory and corporate approvals
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The pipeline will provide access to REX's east-west backbone, linking Permian gas to Midwest, Rockies, and Northeast markets
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The project could help alleviate future Permian gas bottlenecks, improve basis differentials, and support AI-driven power demand and reshoring -related industrial growth across multiple U.S. regions
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Williams MountainWest Overthrust Expansion Underway, In-Service by 4Q 2025
(March 03, 2025)
Market impact: Price spreads between CIG and NWP Rockies should tighten as additional gas moves west across the basin
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Williams began construction on its MountainWest Overthrust expansion in April 2025, with 4Q 2025 targeted for in-service, per maintenance schedule
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The expansion will add 325 MMcf/d of new westbound capacity to the Opal hub (Wyoming), bolstering east to west natural gas flows in the Rockies
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The construction schedule includes multiple compression upgrades and station outages spanning April to October, with some segments experiencing 100% nomination cuts during work windows
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Once complete, the project should tighten regional price spreads and position Williams to capture stronger western flows amid Canadian competition and renewables intermittency
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See how other regions are performing right now:
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