Rockies Price and Fundamentals

Mountain and Pacific inventories rose 2 Bcf each to 262 Bcf and 298 Bcf for the week ending November 6, 6% to 7% below last year and about 5% above the five-year average. Production averaged 8.10 Bcf/d in November through the 11th, 75 MMcf/d above last year, and the rig count rose to 51 on November 6. Near-term items to watch are GTN limits on flow past Kingsgate through November 27, REX's Bertrand restriction at about 1.08 Bcf/d through November 20, CIG's Line 5A force majeure at Cheyenne West, expected to last as late as December 31, and Northwest's Moab outage on November 20 to 25.

November 13: Rockies basis weakened across the curve this week, however much of the move was constrained to the front. December NWP Rockies traded at +$0.055 intraday Friday, down 15.5c from the November 6 settle but up 4c from November 12, while CIG Rockies traded at -$0.380, down 8.0c on the week. The December to March strip is 9.6c lower at NWP Rockies and 5.8c lower at CIG Rockies, and Summer '27 and Winter '27/'28 are 3c to 5c lower.

November 6: The now prompt December contract was mostly flat week-over-week for both CIG and NWP Rockies basis. CIG fell 1.5c this week while NWP Rockies basis rose 1.5c. Both locations saw late week buying to help lift price after selling pressure earlier in the week. There was similar price action for Summer 27 and Winter ‘27/’28. CIG basis for the next two seasons rose 2.5c and 2.0c respectively to -$0.69 (Summer 27) and -$0.08 (Winter ‘27/’28). Meanwhile, NWP Rockies basis rose 4.5c and 5.0c to -$0.42 and $0.47 for the next two seasons.

October 30: Rockies basis softened week over week with the western side of the basin taking the brunt of the price declines. Prompt November NWP Rockies basis fell 23.5c to −$0.300, a steeper slide than the 18.75c drop in prompt November CIG Rockies basis to −$0.6875, likely due to a combination of selling pressure throughout the week and pipeline outages across the Southwest. Weakening price didn’t affect just the prompt month as Winter ‘26/’27 fell 19c at NWP Rockies to $0.0862 while CIG basis fell nearly 8c to -$0.2150. Summer basis pricing also softened, NWP Rockies down to -$0.4669 and CIG down to -$0.7189.

October 23: This week’s Rockies basis strength concentrated on the western side of the region. Prompt November NWP Rockies basis has strengthened 31c to -$0.09 intraday Friday, well ahead of the 15c gain in prompt November CIG Rockies basis to -$0.525. The rise in basis pricing is throughout the next two seasons as well with regional pricing for the full Winter ‘26/’27 strip and Summer 27 strip rising back near yearly highs.

October 16: Last week’s move in Rockies basis was broad-based strengthening, with NWP outpacing CIG. Prompt November NWP Rockies basis gained 8.0c to -$0.400, while prompt November CIG basis added 5.5c to -$0.675, widening the NWP premium over CIG to 27.5c from 25.0c. Strengthening was consistent throughout the forward curve with the Winter ‘26/’27 NWP Rockies contract rising to $0.116 and CIG Rockies up to -$0.239. Summer 27 also rallied, with NWP Rockies up to -$0.495 and CIG Rockies up to -$0.732 as of the close on 10/16.

October 9: Cash pricing in the Rockies is strong compared to last year, averaging nearly $2.70 at Opal and $2.41 at Cheyenne for the first eight days of October. These are well above the same time last year and some of the strongest daily prices seen this summer. However, forward looking first of month basis pricing has weakened this week across the basin on significant selling pressure. The front month Nov26 and full Winter ‘26/’27 NWP Rockies basis swaps were both down double digits this week to -$0.465 and $0.07 respectively. The Summer27 strip was also down significantly, losing 8.5c to -$0.545 as of Friday. It was similar for CIG Rockies basis with Nov26 down to -$0.735, Winter ‘26/’27 down 9.0c to -$0.262 and Summer27 down 5.0c to -$0.760.

October 2: This week’s price action reversed last week’s losses. The newly prompt Nov26 CIG basis price is up 7c this week to -$0.570 intraday Friday, regaining almost all the losses seen last week. The same is true for NWP Rockies basis with the November contract back to -$0.25. Positive price action was throughout the next two seasons as well on an active trading week. CIG basis for Winter ‘26/’27 gained over 6c to -$0.17, and Summer 27 gained over 8c to -$0.682. Over at NWP Rockies, Winter ‘26/’27 gained almost 10c to $0.2575 while Summer 27 gained 6.5c to -$0.475.

September 25: This week's Rockies basis move was very much front weighted. Prompt October CIG basis widened $0.1675 to −$0.810 intraday Friday, and prompt October NWP Rockies basis widened $0.1475 to −$0.625. However, the Winter ‘26/’27 strips fell less than 5c week-over-week and next Summer even less.

September 18: Rockies basis softened modestly at the front of the curve this week. CIG Rockies basis widened 6.25¢ to −$0.615 (intraday Friday) for October delivery while NWP Rockies basis widened 9.5c to −$0.460 on consistent selling pressure throughout the week. The Winter '26/'27 strip on both curves barely moved (under 1c), with the Summer ’27 strips rising a couple pennies across as CIG Rockies strengthened to -$0.742 and NWP Rockies strengthened to -$0.515.

September 11: Consistent selling throughout the NWP Rockies and CIG Rockies basis curves meant prices dropped week-over-week. The next three seasons for CIG Rockies basis prices averaged a weekly decline of roughly 3c. Winter ‘26/’27 fell 4c to -$0.1827, Summer ’27 fell 2c to -$0.755 and Winter ‘27/’28 fell 2.7c to -$0.112. It was similar at NWP Rockies where Winter ‘26/’27 fell 8.4c to $0.21, Summer ’27 fell 3.2c to -$0.54 and Winter ‘27/’28 fell 6.5c to $0.405. San Juan basis saw low activity and as a result the forward curve was flat week-over-week.

September 4: Basis across the Rockies improved broadly this week. The newly prompt October CIG Rockies basis contract rose 7.5c week-over-week to -$0.540 intraday Friday. Meanwhile, NWP Rockies basis added 11.75c to -$0.280 intraday Friday. CIG's Winter '26/'27 and Summer '27 strips weakened 0.5c and 0.8c, while NWP Rockies basis added 1.55c in the winter strip and held roughly flat next summer.

Price action will continue to be heavily weather driven and influenced by adjacent regions as the Rockies looks to push gas out during the summer and meet regional demand during winter. No significant changes to pipeline egress capacity are expected over the next few years. However, there will be small increases in pipeline capacity from a few pipeline expansions throughout 2026 and 2027 intrabasin.

CIG Rockies & NWP Rockies Basis Outlook and Notes

Winter '26-'27

Basis pricing during Winter will remain susceptible to price appreciation should sustained cold materialize for the West Coast, Rockies, or Midwest regions although supply remains robust.

When available take advantage of basis prices that are a premium to Henry Hub to de-risk the portfolio.

Summer '27

Pricing is near its highs of 2026, providing a good chance to de-risk.

Current pricing could face another year of downward pressure if sustained cold this winter does not materialize.

We continue to see shoulder season months most susceptible to price volatility because of weather.

Winter '27-'28

When available take advantage of basis prices that are a premium to Henry Hub to de-risk the portfolio due to the outsized effect weather has on price realizations.

For more discussion on basis price moves and the current forward curves:

For more discussion and charts, jump to our outlook and chart pack. Remember, the local market is influenced by the broader gas market.

Infrastructure Outlook

Rockies infrastructure development is being driven by new demand rather than new egress. Through 2027 the additions are mostly local load in Wyoming, Utah and Colorado, led by Google's Project Tembo data center campus in Cheyenne, which can draw up to about 405 MMcf/d of Rockies Express gas (project will come on in phases through 2031), alongside coal-to-gas conversions and industrial load in southwest Wyoming. Existing pipe is being reconfigured rather than expanded: recent and planned projects move more gas west toward Opal and Kern River, and about 635 MMcf/d of Kern River contracts expiring from 2027 to 2030 will show how much westbound capacity buyers want to keep.

The larger shift comes after 2028, when new western demand arrives through Ruby. Great Basin's expansion toward Reno and the Tahoe-Reno Industrial Center now has binding agreements for 1 Bcf/d on a 48-inch line due in the fourth quarter of 2028, expandable to nearly 2 Bcf/d. Williams’ Silver Spur pipeline would add another 275 MMcf/d of capacity in the first half of 2030, drawing Rockies gas west. Great Basin is still in FERC's pre-filing review, with Southwest Gas expecting to file its certificate application by year-end. The loads behind it are taking shape: in October, Switch sought Nevada approval for a 510 MW gas plant at the Tahoe-Reno Industrial Center that would be supplied from the expansion.

Two proposals, Tallgrass's Permian-to-REX pipeline and CIG's Cheyenne to Opal expansion, would bring competing supply into the region. Most post-2028 projects are still in permitting or proposal stages, so timing remains the main uncertainty.

For a discussion of production outlook:

Below are the most market-relevant infrastructure projects that appear to be funded and going forward. The projects that offer intra-region capacity (egress) are also shown in the chart above.

Note: Deeper discussion included below the map.

Major Pipeline Corridors Out of The Rockies

Gas Pipeline Flows

Local Supply

Production has so far held near 8.1 Bcf/d into November. Output averaged 8.10 Bcf/d in November through the 11th, 75 MMcf/d above November 2025 and about 50 MMcf/d above the 2021 to 2025 average. For the year, production has averaged 8.15 Bcf/d, 75 MMcf/d above the same period of 2025. Drilling has picked up: the November 6 rig count showed 51 rigs across Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and Montana, up from 49 on October 23 and 39 a year ago, with Utah and Wyoming at 18 each. In the near term, REX's Bertrand restriction is held to about 1.08 Bcf/d through November 20 before returning to about 1.09 Bcf/d, and CIG's Line 5A force majeure at Cheyenne West, which cuts 223,000 MMBtu/d of capacity, is expected to last as late as December 31. Longer term, Williams announced a 9.4 Bcf storage expansion at Clay Basin with its third-quarter results, and CIG's open season for 20,000 MMBtu/d of DJ Basin to Cheyenne capacity closed November 5, with awards not yet posted.

Some analysts are forecasting production to decline over the next five years by as much as 10% between 2025 and 2030. Inventory exhaustion and capital deployment to other more prolific regions will be the main drivers should this produciton decline materialize.

Production

Rig Count

Local Demand

Local consumption rose into the heating season, averaging about 2.9 Bcf/d in November through the 11th, about 0.56 Bcf/d above last November. New load is firming up across the region, though most of it arrives after 2027. In Cheyenne, Google confirmed on November 5 that it could invest up to $17 billion in its Laramie County campus through 2031. The project involves Tallgrass, Black Hills, AEP and Related Digital, starting with a 702 MW natural gas fuel-cell plant. Additionally, Black Hills has signed definitive agreements to build 564 MW of new gas-fired generation for the campus. In Nevada, regulators approved 362 MW of temporary gas-fired plants for Fleet Data Centers at the Tahoe-Reno Industrial Center in September, while Switch has applied for a 510 MW permanent gas plant there that would be supplied by Great Basin's expansion. The Great Basin expansion now has binding agreements for 1 Bcf/d from the fourth quarter of 2028. In Wyoming, PacifiCorp's Naughton coal-to-gas conversion (98 MMcf/d) has been running since the second quarter. Looking to the end of the decade, demand should grow as data centers begin operations, but the ramp is uneven, with most incremental load projected for 2029 and later.

Operator Guidance

SM Energy (Q2 2026 EC)

08/06/2026

2026 Guidance

DJ Basin Q2 2026 gas production of 260.4 MMcf/d, within 118.8 Mboe/d of total DJ production

Uinta Basin Q2 2026 gas production of 34.1 MMcf/d, within 40.1 Mboe/d of total Uinta production

Full-year 2026 guidance of 418–423 Mboe/d, rising to 435–440 Mboe/d in the second half

No Rockies-versus-Permian volume split is disclosed in the guidance table

Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights

The DJ Basin and Uinta together draw 40% of 2026 capital, 20% each, against 45% for the Permian and 15% for South Texas

A new Uinta central processing facility came online, described as lower cost with faster turn-in-lines and a smaller footprint

The asset sale that closed April 30, 2026 was South Texas — no DJ, Uinta, or Civitas-related Rockies divestiture was disclosed

Drilling & Basin Activity

DJ Basin 2026 activity of roughly 55 net drills and 80 net turn-in-lines on an average of 1 rig and 1 frac crew

Uinta 2026 activity of roughly 35 net drills and 30 net turn-in-lines on an average of 2.5 rigs and 1 frac crew

Simul-frac practices carried over from the Civitas combination continue to drive DJ Basin completion efficiency

Management framed the Uinta explicitly as an oil basin, signalling that Rockies capital is directed at oil rather than gas development

Analyst Q&A Takeaways

CIG Rockies gas basis hedges of 11,960 BBtu in each of Q3 and Q4 2026 at $(0.57) per MMBtu, stepping down to roughly 1,800–1,840 BBtu per quarter through 2027 at $(0.37)

Company-wide second-half 2026 hedge coverage of 55% of gas volumes and 53% of oil

No curtailments, Rockies takeaway constraints, or regional demand-pull commentary appeared in the release, presentation, or transcript

Powder River is not part of the SM Energy portfolio — its stated footprint is Permian, DJ, South Texas, and Uinta

Williams (Q3 2026 EC)

11/03/2026

2026 Guidance

Northwest Pipeline averaged 2.2 MMdth/d of transportation volume in Q3 against 4.0 MMdth/d of average firm reserved capacity

MountainWest averaged 4.2 MMdth/d against 8.1 MMdth/d of average firm reserved capacity, up from 3.0 MMdth/d in Q2

DJ Basin gathering volumes were lower than a year earlier

Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights

Commercialized a 9.4 Bcf expansion, targeted for Q2 2029, of MountainWest's Clay Basin storage facility, which management called "the largest storage asset in the Rockies"

Huntingdon Connector (78 MMcf/d) and Ryckman Creek Lateral (50 MMcf/d) are now in service

Green River West Expansion: 64 MMcf/d, targeted Q3 2027; Wild Trail: 83 MMcf/d, targeted Q4 2027

Kelso-Beaver Reliability Project: 183 MMcf/d, targeted Q4 2028

Silver Spur: 275 MMcf/d on Northwest Pipeline, targeted Q2 2030

Management described MountainWest as a gateway between the Rockies and Western markets, where "there's tremendous demand"

EOG Resources (Q1 2026 EC)

08/05/2026

2026 Guidance

Company natural gas guidance of 3,040–3,160 MMcf/d for both Q3 and full-year 2026, with no Rockies breakout

Q2 2026 US natural gas volumes of 2,784 MMcf/d, company-wide

EOG disclosed no Powder River or Rockies gas volume split in its release, guidance, or statistics documents this quarter

Drilling & Basin Activity

Powder River Basin: 365,000 net acres with 45 wells planned for 2026 on 2 rigs and 1 frac crew

Powder River remains EOG's lowest-activity domestic play, behind Delaware at 13 rigs and 305 wells, Eagle Ford at 4 rigs and 115 wells, Utica at 3 rigs and 95 wells, and Dorado at 2 rigs and 30 wells

Powder River appears as both a gas and an oil sales market node in EOG's 2026 sales-distribution network

Rockies activity remains oil-directed, with gas produced in association

Analyst Q&A Takeaways

Occidental Petroleum (Q2 2026 EC)

08/06/2026

2026 Guidance:

Rockies and Other Domestic net gas production of 687 MMcf/d in Q2 2026, within 280 Mboe/d of total segment production

Rockies and Other guided to 265–271 Mboe/d for Q3 2026 and 270–276 Mboe/d for the full year, a narrower range on an essentially flat midpoint

Q2 Rockies production of 280 Mboe/d matched the top end of the 274–280 Mboe/d range guided on the Q1 call

Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights

The quarterly production reconciliation attributes roughly 3 Mboe/d of Rockies upside to strong base performance and non-recurring outside-operated volumes

Domestic realized natural gas price averaged negative $1.48 per Mcf in Q2 against positive $1.01 in Q1, though no Rockies-specific realization is disclosed

No Rockies takeaway, processing, or storage project was disclosed this quarter

Drilling & Basin Activity:

Rockies 2026 plan of roughly 3 gross and 3 net rigs, unchanged from the Q1 call

Rockies wells online guided to 150–170 for 2026, unchanged from the Q1 call

No Rockies frac crew count was disclosed

Analysts Q&A Takeaways:

Crescent Energy (Q3 2026 EC)

11/03/2026

Drilling & Basin Activity

Drilled 1 and brought 7 gross operated Uinta wells online in Q3 2026

Management sees "so much resource potential" in the Uinta, where offset operators are also actively developing, and expects continued activity and inventory expansion over time

Management sees incremental zones to develop in the Uinta

Management would call the Uinta undercapitalized relative to Crescent's overall allocation, and while steady state remains the planning case, some capital could move there from the existing Eagle Ford depending on the market and execution

Hedging Activity

About 60% of oil production is hedged in 1H 2027, about 50% in 2H 2027 and about 20% in 1H 2028, company-wide, pro forma for the Devon Eagle Ford acquisition

Chart Packet

Don’t stop here. See how other regions are performing right now:

Haynesville — Permian — Appalachian — Midcon