Midcontinent Price and Fundamentals

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Commentary Outlook & Notes Market-Relevant Events Infrastructure Supply Chart Pack

NGPL Midcon Basis is used as a regional benchmark for Lower Midcon gas prices, with the basis spread being the discount or premium to Henry Hub.  Forward prices for NGPL Midcon remain at a discount to Hub throughout the next two years, as Lower Midcon prices in general trade at discounts to downstream demand locations in the Midwest or Gulf Coast. The reason for this is that the Midcon is situated in between sources of supply and demand, while also having a substantial amount of production. At times of strong weather-driven demand during peak winter, prices may rise above Henry Hub, encouraging more gas to remain in the region.

Commentary

September 11: Basis pricing across the Midcon was little changed this week on very low trading activity. Prompt October NGPL Midcon basis firmed just 1.25c to -$0.4375, with ONEOK and Panhandle basis moving similarly, and the Winter '26/'27 and Summer '27 strips held roughly flat.

September 4: Midcon basis strengthened broadly this week. Prompt October NGPL Midcon basis rose 5.3c to -$0.4625, ONEOK basis gained 6.0c to -$0.535, and Panhandle basis added 6.5c to -$0.555. Trading for the October contract was light across NGPL Midcon and ONEOK with Panhandle rallying on buying Wednesday-Friday. Looking at the next two full seasons, trading was sparse across NGPL Midcon and ONEOK while Panhandle traded for both Winter ‘26/’27 and Summer ’27. Overall, the next two seasonal strips across the basin rose about 2c.

August 28: The Midcon saw basis pricing weaken across the board once again. Prompt September NGPL Midcon basis held near -$0.435 while Winter ‘26/’27 and Summer ‘27 sold off 7c and 4c respectively. Elsewhere, Sept 26 Panhandle and ONEOK basis softened only a couple of cents to -$0.57 and -$0.5425.

August 21: Midcon basis weakened broadly this week. Prompt September NGPL Midcon basis fell 3.8c to -$0.4325, while ONEOK basis dropped 7.8c to -$0.52 and Panhandle basis fell 9.3c to -$0.545. NGPL Midcon's Winter '26/'27 and Summer '27 strips held roughly flat.

August 14: Gas daily pricing at NGPL Midcon continues to lag pricing seen last summer. Daily prices are up slightly week-over-week by 3% to $2.40 but are down nearly 5% month over month. Forward looking basis pricing has recently stalled its upward trend. Winter 26/27 NGPL Midcon basis pricing is currently -$0.235 while Summer 27 is -$0.42. Both are down slightly from recent highs on 7/20, although trading remains light. 

August 7: Basis pricing across the Midcon continues to trade sideways. The prompt September NGPL Midcon basis price rose 1.0c week-over-week to -$0.39.  Very little trading activity has left the rest of the forward curve mostly unchanged.

July 31: Daily gas prices in the Midcontinent are trending lower. The NGPL Midcon gas daily price is down 4% week-over-week and nearly 6% month-over-month to $2.40. The forward curve is mostly flat week-over-week with very little trading activity. Winter 26/27 is down 1.5c over the past week to -$0.237 while Summer 27 has seen negligible movement to trade -$0.409.

July 24: While daily pricing at NGPL Midcon is up 4% week-over-week to $2.53, pricing is down 6% from a month ago and is back below last year’s level. Forward-looking pricing is continuing its V-shaped recovery from April lows. Summer 27 NGPL Midcon basis (-$0.403) is back to its strongest price since November 2025 when it briefly reached -$0.375. The Summer 28 strip, while not back to yearly highs has also bounced back to trade -$0.405, gaining 15c from its recent lows.

July 17: The strong rally in Midcontinent basis pricing is continuing. Summer 27 NGPL Midcon basis pricing has rallied to its highest price since last December, trading up to -$0.40 as of the close on 7/16. Most striking is the rise in Winter 26/27 which has moved to -$0.19, the highest price since January 2025. Winter 27/28 is also continuing its move higher, trading up to -$0.32.

July 10: : Gas daily prices at NGPL Midcon are continuing to trade at prices similar to those seen last summer, around $2.60. However, first of month prices across the forward curve have improved dramatically from early/mid-April. Winter 26/27 is up to -$0.23, its highest price since early 2025 while Summer 27 is up to -$0.42.

July 1: Gas daily price at NGPL Midcon settled on June 30^th at $2.5475, down 4% week-over-week and 3% month-over-month. However, over the full month of June, gas daily pricing tracked along at similar levels to a year ago, around the $2.60 level. Regional basis forward curves, while off recent lows, have seen their rallies stall. Current Winter 26/27 NGPL Midcon is pricing -$0.338 as of the close on 6/30 while Summer 27 settled -$0.485.

June 12: While prompt month basis pricing trades sideways, forward basis pricing (winter ‘26/’27 forward) is trending higher. The summer ’27 strip across most locations is trading back near levels seen in early November 2025 with NGPL Midcon up to -$0.46 as of the close on Thursday 6/11. While winter ‘26/’27 and winter ‘27/’28 still trade at a discount at most locations, they’re trending toward parity with Henry Hub. NGPL TxOk is an outlier, with forward pricing remaining under pressure, as numerous Permian pipelines look to direct gas into North Texas and the Gulf Coast.

Major Pipeline Exits From the Lower Midcontinent

Gas Pipeline Flows

Gas Pipeline Projects

One Gas, Inc. Bennington to Hugo Line In-service date: 3Q 2028 Capacity: 250 MMcf/d
ANR Northwoods Expansion In-service date: 2029 Capacity: 400 MMcf/d