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Commentary Outlook & Notes Market-Relevant Events Infrastructure Supply Chart Pack
A mild winter across the United States combined with strong production in neighboring regions meant basis pricing in the lower Midcontinent (Midcon) had their worst start to a year in at least four years. NGPL Midcon Basis is used as a regional benchmark for Lower Midcon gas prices, with the basis spread being the discount or premium to Henry Hub. Forward prices for NGPL Midcon remain at a discount to Hub throughout the next two years, as Lower Midcon prices in general trade at discounts to downstream demand locations in the Midwest or Gulf Coast. The reason for this is that the Midcon is situated in between sources of supply and demand, while also having a substantial amount of production. At times of strong weather-driven demand during peak winter, prices may rise above Henry Hub, encouraging more gas to remain in the region.
Commentary
April 17: Trading across Midcon basis locations remains light. Overall price movement has been mostly flat with some small price appreciation throughout the forward curves. Prompt month NGPL Midcon basis remains flat week-over-week at -$0.65. There was more activity in prompt Panhandle basis which gained 5c to trade -$0.68 to end the week.
April 10: Light trading activity across regional locations has meant many tenors are trading relatively unchanged week-over-week. However, the prompt month May26 contract is trending higher with NGPL Midcon basis pricing -$0.6575, up from -$0.725 at the close of Thursday, April 2. Panhandle basis has also seen buying this week, rising to -$0.730 intraday, up $0.06, week-over-week.
March 27: Midcon basis pricing is set for a weekly decline with Apr26 NGPL Micon basis trading -$0.75, down from -$0.69 a week ago. Declines are continuing down the curve as well with Winter '26/'27 and Summer '27 consistently selling off since November.
March 20: Basis pricing across the Midcontinent is little changed week-over-week. Prompt month April basis pricing across multiple locations is flat to $0.01 better than where things ended las week. Summer 2026 pricing increased slightly for NGPL Midcon basis, up to -$0.6970 on a small amount of buying interest on March 17.
March 11: Regional basis prices in the lower Midcontinent continue to follow a longer-term downtrend. Notably, prompt basis at NGPL Midcon failed to trade at a premium to Henry Hub at any point this winter-the first occurence in at least four years. Prompt month NGPL Midcon settled at -$0.655 on March 10, down from a three-month high of -$0.5325 reached on February 11, although trading has been light over that time period. Further out the curve, pricing remains notably flat beyond Summer 2026. The following three seasonal strips are all trading within roughly three cents of each other: Winter '26/'27 at -$0.5194, Summer '27 at -$0.5078, and Winter '27/'28 at -$0.5078 as of the close on March 10.
January 16: Price action across the lower Midcon and adjacent basins has consistently been sold off since the start of December. The prompt month Feb26 NGPL Midcon contract has fallen to -$0.700 intraday January 16, down from -$0.0725 on December 1. Interestingly, Summer 26 Midcon basis prices have rallied since the start of the year with NGPL Midcon basis up to -$0.545 from -$0.608 on December 31.
NGPL Midcon Basis Outlook and Notes
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Summer '26
There are fewer differences between major Midcontinent pricing hubs in the Summer ’26 strip (Apr–Oct). Nearly all points (NGPL Midcon, ANR Oklahoma, ONEOK Oklahoma, Panhandle TX-OK) are priced at about a –$0.75/MMBtu discount to Henry Hub as of April 10.
Shoulder season weakness has meant Summer '26 pricing has drifted lower than the observed -$0.50 to -$0.60 seen the past two years. Any potential price appreciation will likely be weather driven.
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Winter '26-'27
The Permian Basin will gain new pipeline egress capacity to the Gulf Coast in the second half of 2026, shifting some gas away from the Midcontinent. The impact is likely more concentrated in 2027. The Waha curve shows significant improvement in 2027, and Lower Midcontinent pricing hubs also display modest gains in the forward curve for Summer ’27 compared with Summer ’26.
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Summer '27
Take advantage of resilient pricing in Summer '27 which is trading near parity across the Midcotinent and Midwest to Winter '27/'28
The Permian Basin will gain new pipeline egress capacity to the Gulf Coast in the second half of 2026, shifting some gas away from the Midcontinent. The impact is likely more concentrated in 2027.
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For more discussion on basis price moves and the current forward curves:
For more discussion and charts, jump to our outlook and chart pack. Remember, the local market is influenced by the broader gas market. Consult our Gas Macro Outlook for more.
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Recent Market-Relevant Events
8.5.2025
Pipeline maintenance supporting midwest gas prices
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7.14.2025
Midcon producers see $3.79 gas needed for substantial growth
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5.2.2025
TC Energy approves ANR pipeline expansion
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Several pipelines pass through the Midcontinent, bringing supply from west Texas and the Rockies into the Midwest. Meanwhile, gas also flows south through the region toward the Gulf Coast. During winter when the Midwest and Northeast consume the most gas, flows typically head north towards the large demand centers. There are only a few planned infrastructure expansions on the horizon, such as the small Palo Duro pipeline connecting Permian production to a system in southwest Oklahoma, and an expansion of the ANR pipeline in the Midwest.
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For a discussion of production outlook:
Below are the most market-relevant infrastructure projects that appear to be funded and going forward. The projects that offer intra-region capacity (egress) are also shown in the chart above.
Note: Deeper discussion included below the map.
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Major Pipeline Exits From the Lower Midcontinent
Gas Pipeline Flows
Gas Pipeline Projects
Palo Duro Pipeline
In-service date: 1Q 2026
Capacity: 80 MMcf/d
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ANR Northwoods Expansion
In-service date: 2029
Capacity: 400 MMcf/d
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Local Supply
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Gas production in the lower Midcon has been relatively flat over the past few years, ranging between 7.5 and 8.5 Bcf/d. This winter, November 2025 through March 2026, daily production has averaged just over 8.2 Bcf/d, the second highest daily average of the past five years. When including gas entering from neighboring regions, total available supply has been averaging 11.5 Bcf/d this winter, again the second highest rate of the past five winters. Rig counts continue to be stable since early 2023, likely keeping a lid on any chance of a significant increase in production.
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Operator Guidance
Devon Energy (Q4 2025 EC)
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02/18/2026
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2026 Guidance:
Q1 2026 Production:
Gas: 1,350-1,400 MMcf/d
Total: 823-843 Mboe/d
FY 2026 Production:
Gas: 1,360-1,400 MMcf/d
Total: 835-855 Mboe/d
2026 CapEx:
Q1 Total: $870-$930MM (Upstream $850-$900MM)
FY Total: $3.5-$3.7B (Upstream $3.425-$3.575B)
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights:
Coterra Merger:
1.6 MMboe/d expected production
Acquisitions & Partnerships:
Matterhorn equity divestiture (~$409MM; capacity retained)
LNG export deal: 50 MMcf/d (10 years, starts 2028)
In-basin power deal: 65 MMcf/d (7 years, starts 2028)
Total production in 2026 expected to remain near current elvels at 835 Mboe/d to 855 Mboe/d
Crude oil is expected to make up roughly 388 Mboe/d of total production
Analyst Q&A Takeaways
Mid-Con allocation remains stable, not a swing basin:
When asked about how to think about 2026 allocation outside the Delaware, management said to think of it as directionally similar to how capital has already been allocated
GP&T and operating cost improvements are real, not theoretical:
Management explicitly tied lower GP&T to a new Delaware gathering and processing contract, while also highlighting broader LOE improvements from condition-based maintenance and operational reliability
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Gulfport Energy (Q4 2025 EC)
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02/25/2026
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2026 Guidance
FY 2026 Production:
Gas: ~0.92-0.94 Bcf/d
Liquids: 18-21 Mbbl/d
Total: 1.03-1.06 Bcfe/d
Production Outlook:
Production expected to increase ~5% by 4Q2026 vs. 4Q 2025 as new wells come online and temporary downtime subsides
Analyst Q&A Takeaways
Marketing Strategy:
Rather than relying on large marketing deals, Gulfport is pursuing smaller aggregation agreements and opportunistic marketing arrangements to improve realized gas prices
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Ovintiv (Q4 2025 EC)
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02/24/2026
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2026 Guidance
Q1 2026 Production:
Gas: 2,075-2,125 MMcf/d
Total: 660-680 Mboe/d
FY 2026 Production (Run-Rate):
Gas: 2,000-2,100 MMcf/d
Total: 620-645 Mboe/d
2026 CapEx:
Q1 Capital: $600-$650MM
FY Capital: $2.25-2.35B
Strategic & Infrastructure Highlights
Portfolio Simplification:
The Anadarko Basin divestiture, expected to close in early 2026, removes roughly 70 Mboe/d of production from the portfolio and reduces leverage
Drilling & Basin Activity
Anadarko Basin:
Only ~50MM of capital is allocated to Anadarko in 1Q2026 prior to the assert sale
Following divestiture, Ovintiv will no longer have meaningful Mid-Con exposure, completing the company's pivot toward Permian and Montney development
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Local Demand
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It's been a mixed bag in terms of seasonal demand this winter. Local consumption from November 2025 through March 2026 has underperformed compared to the past five years, only averaging 4.27 Bcf/d, the second lowest since '21/'22. However, when you include flows out of the basin, the picture looks better with total demand (local consumption plus outflows) the second highest over the same timeframe at 11.68 Bcf/d. Moving forward, the Midcontinent will continue to rely on the Midwest and Gulf Coast as major sources of demand.
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Renewables: The Southwest Power Pool or SPP, which includes most of the Midcontinent, is one of the largest regions for wind generation.
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Data Centers and Electrification: The rise of data centers and electrification of oilfield operations (e.g., electric drilling rigs) also adds to power demand. As with many parts of the US with access to reliable gas and power supply, developers have started to build data centers in Oklahoma. Google operates one data center east of Tulsa, while a new 500-acre facility linked to Meta is also planned for the city.
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Recent Market-Relevant events
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Pipeline maintenance supporting midwest gas prices
(August 5, 2025)
Work on the Viking Gas Transmission system reduced flows heading into the midwest
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A series of hydrotests reduced downstream flows from Minnesota into the midwest
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Midwest spot gas prices strengthened amid the supply reduction, while prices near the Canadian border weakened
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Gas inventories in the region had already been trailing other parts of the country, with lower supply exacerbating this
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Midcon producers see $3.79 gas needed for growth
(July 14, 2025)
A survey by the Kansas City Federal Reserve found producers in the area think gas prices need to average $3.79/MMbtu for drilling to be profitable.
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Executives noted that for drilling in the region to be profitable, natural gas prices will need to average $3.79/MMbtu, while a substantial increase in production may require an average of $5.01/MMbtu
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One respondent stated that gas prices have been stronger this year, encouraging more activity in the mid-term, but this could weaken prices on a longer time frame
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TC Energy approves ANR pipeline expansion
(May 30, 2025)
TC Energy approved a $900 million expansion of its ANR pipeline system through the Northwoods project, aiming to meet increasing natural gas demand in the U.S. Midwest with completion expected by late 2029.
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The Northwoods project will expand ANR pipeline capacity by 0.4 Bcf/d with new infrastructure
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Northwoods aims to serve Midwest electricity demand, including data centers and economic growth
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Don’t stop here.
See how other regions are performing right now:
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