Crude Oil
WTI, Brent, OPEC+, inventories and differentials.
Oil Prices Reflect Fundamentals More Than Geopolitical Headlines in 2025
Geopolitical risk is often associated with upward pressure on oil prices, with conflicts, sanctions, and supply disruptions contributing to risk premiums i...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
EIA Projects Looser Oil Balances in 2026 Amid Persistent Non-OPEC Growth
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the EIA presents a materially looser global oil landscape heading into 2026, driven by persistent non-OPEC...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
What a Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal Could Mean for the Global Crude Market
A potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia would arrive as the oil market moves into surplus. De-escalation could unwind remaining risk premiums at ...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
EIA Raises Price Forecasts Despite Growing Supply Surplus
The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) November 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) the agency raised its crude oil price forecasts for 2...
· Narciso Cano3 min read
OPEC+ Falls Short on Promised Barrels but Oversupply Looms Regardless
OPEC+ began unwinding its voluntary production cuts in April 2025, completing the first 2.46 MMBbl/d tranche of restored output by September, a full year a...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
EIA Projects Rising Inventories and Softer Oil Prices Into 2026
Global oil inventories are projected to continue rising through 2026, according to the EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook, highlighting a persis...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
OPEC+ Keeps Supply Hike Modest as Market Signals Weaken
OPEC+ opted for a smaller-than-expected production increase over the weekend, easing concerns that the group might accelerate its supply recovery into an i...
· Narciso Cano1 min read
OPEC+ Eyes Faster Return Schedule for 1.66 MMBbl/d of Halted Production
OPEC+ will meet on October 5 to debate whether to accelerate the return of 1.66 MMBbl/d of voluntary cuts. One proposal under review is to raise output by ...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
EIA Outlook Points to Persistent Oversupply, Soft Prices Ahead
EIA Outlook Points to Persistent Oversupply, Soft Prices Ahead In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA projects that significant growth in...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
OPEC+ Accelerates Production Hike, Setting Stage for Supply Glut
OPEC+ announced it will raise the group’s production quota by 137 MBbl/d for October, marking the start of unwinding 1.66 MMBbl/d of voluntary cuts t...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Money Managers Tip WTI Into First-Ever Net Short When CME and ICE Combined
Money managers have cut their crude oil exposure to the lowest levels in more than 15 years, pushing WTI futures into unprecedented territory. The latest C...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Oil Oversupply Might be Beyond Fixing
Global oil demand growth would need to vastly outperform historical trends over the next 18 months to absorb projected supply increases from OPEC+ and non-...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
EIA Cuts Near-Term Crude Price Outlook
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA lowered its near-term oil price forecasts. The chart below underscores the shift in sentiment, with...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
OPEC+ Completes 2.2 MMBBl/d Unwind With September Production Quota Hike
OPEC+ announced a 547 MBbl/d production quota increase for the month of September, completing the reversal of the group’s November 2023 supply cuts a...
· Narciso Cano1 min read
Saudi Overproduction Casts Uncertainty on OPEC+ Supply Path
Saudi Overproduction Casts Uncertainty on OPEC+ Supply Path In their latest July monthly oil market report (MOMR), OPEC reported that Saudi Arabia produce...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
EIA Lifts Near-Term Crude Price Forecasts
In their latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the agency raised its near-term oil price forecasts. The WTI price is now forecast to average $65.22/...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
OPEC+ Surprises with Supersized Production Quota Hike for August
At its latest meeting, OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected production quota hike of 548 MBbl/d for August, surpassing the market’s expectation of ...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Tracking OPEC+ Supply: Headline vs. Reality
OPEC+ is in the process of bringing back over 2 MM barrels of additional production at a time when global balances forecast a surplus through 2026. However...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
Oil's Geopolitical Whiplash: Prices Return to Square One
Oil prices experienced a volatile swing following escalating tensions in the Middle East that evolved into direct conflict involving Israel, Iran, and the ...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Global Oil Market Loosens as Forecasts Shift: IEA
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) June 2025 Oil Market Report points to a loosening global oil balance through 2026, as softer demand and resil...
· Narciso Cano2 min read
EIA Projects U.S. Oil Production Decline Amid Weak Prices
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is now forecasting a decline in U.S. crude production in 2026, marking a notable shift from last month’s o...
· Narciso Cano4 min read
OPEC+ Output Plan Adds to Surplus Concerns
OPEC+ is rapidly restoring crude supply into a weakening market, raising output by 411 MBbl/d in June following a similar increase in May. While the move is intended to enforce quota discipline and align with President Trump's calls for lower prices, it comes as global demand growth slows. OPEC+
· Narciso Cano3 min read
U.S. Crude Output Nears Peak as Trade War Deepens Oil Price Slump
Oil prices have continued to decline in 2025, fueling growing concerns that U.S. crude oil production may have already peaked. A global trade war has sharply reduced oil demand growth forecasts, increasing the likelihood of a more pronounced oversupply in both 2025 and 2026. Both Brent and WTI have
· Jay Stevens2 min read
EIA Makes Substantial Forecast Changes
The US Energy Information Agency released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes several notable changes compared to last month's outlook. He...
· Christian Drolshagen2 min read