Crude Oil
WTI, Brent, OPEC+, inventories and differentials.
Assessing the Trump Administration's Energy Tariffs and Global Trade Impact
The Trump administration has introduced a series of tariffs with significant implications for the global energy market. These measures, part of a broader s...
· Narciso Cano4 min read
Bakken Price and Fundamentals
Updated September 17, 2024 Bakken crude price differentials and production have been relatively stable over the past 12 months. However, an increase in ga...
· Rishi Rajanala5 min read
OPEC Watch: Most relevant developments
OPEC and allies struggled to come to an agreement over oil production quotas. However, OPEC, with its participating guest countries (collectively, OPEC+), ...
· Rishi Rajanala21 min read
An Often Overlooked Price Component - NYMEX WTI CMA Roll
WTI CMA Roll hinges on the direction of the NYMEX WTI forward curve, which reflects the market's expectations about future oil prices The Roll represent...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
Permian to Gulf Coast Crude Pipelines Nearing Capacity. Will Bottlenecks Spur Takeaway Capacity Expansion?
Increasing supply from the Permian is nearing pipeline capacity limits, with utilization along the Permian-to-Gulf Coast route estimated at 90%, ...
· Rishi Rajanala6 min read
Impending OPEC+ Meeting to Address African Quota Disputes and Market Stability
So…
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns to The Oil Market
Oil futures gapped up on Sunday afternoon trading in response to the sudden, escalated conflict between Hamas and Israel over the weekend. Traditionally, ...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
How Good/Bad is Your Costless Collar?
Have you ever asked that question? How good or bad is the costless collar I just priced? We have a way of providing historical reference when it comes to o...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Transmountain Pipeline Expansion and Impacts on Canadian Crude Differentials
The Transmountain expansion will significantly increase the amount of egress capacity out of Western Canada when it comes online in 2024 WCS differentia...
· Christian Drolshagen4 min read
WTI Flips to Backwardation for First Time Since May
The WTI crude market has shifted into backwardation for the first time since May, signaling tighter supply. Prompt WTI is trading higher than in later mont...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
Is the Oil Market Poised for a Shake-Up as OPEC Cuts Deepen?
July 7, 2023 - At the beginning of the year, two factors were on every crude analyst’s mind – the impending loss of Russian supply and China&...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
Can Saudi's Unilateral Cuts Deepen Oil Market Deficit in 2H2023?
Saudi Arabia's recent announcement of a unilateral production cut of 1 MMBbl/d for July, in addition to OPEC+'s extended cuts through December 2024, may wo...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
Russia's Export Resilience May Falter as Signs of Trade Clogging Emerge
Fuel volumes in floating storage at record highs since 2016, posing a significant threat to Russia's oil exports and crude processing, in addition to the l...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
What is the Fallout of the EU-G7 Price Cap?
Updated December 9, 2022 What happened The G7 nations, along with the European Union, implemented a price cap of $60/Bbl on Russian crude on Monday, Dece...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
More Iran Supply Likely Soon? U.S., Iran negotiating JCPOA
The U.S., Europe, and Iran have been trying to reach a consensus to bring all parties back into accordance with the JCPOA since then U.S.-President Donald ...
· Rishi Rajanala2 min read
Costless Collars and Put-skew In The Oil Market
Option structures are useful tools to deploy in risk management. They provide more latitude for hedging than the more straightforward swap. Hedging with sw...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Headline Oil Prices Fall, But Curve Shifts Higher
Headline Oil Prices Fall, But Curve Shifts Higher Oil producers can now lock in a materially higher price strip than before Russia’s invasion of Ukr...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Oil Market Volatility Reduces Liquidity
Crude oil markets have been upended by high levels of volatility, resulting in lower liquidity. Open interest in benchmark crude markets has sunk to the lo...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Producers Expect Modest Growth in 2022
U.S. oil producers have resisted growth plans, even as prices have risen sharply. Earnings calls for 4Q2021 are complete and show modest growth among those...
· Rishi Rajanala3 min read
Low Oil Inventories Are The Foundation of High Oil Prices
Oil inventories are a good measure of the scarcity of oil. Prices have followed those inventory levels. Some analysts with bearish price outlooks are fore...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Russia has Europe in Check Position
Crude oil futures have rallied to the highest levels since 2014. A major contributor to the rise in price is the perceived geopolitical risk caused b...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
Crude Oil Export Ban Would Increase Gasoline Prices, Not Reduce
Update: According to reports, a crude-oil export ban is now not under consideration. That's good, because it wouldn't work. Certain policy m...
· Matt Marshall3 min read
New COVID-19 Variant, Omicron, Helps Push Oil To Its Worst Day Since April 2020; Is This An Overreaction?
On Friday, November 26, oil prices came under heavy selling pressure as news of a new COVID-19 variant, B.1.1.529, now known as
· Nick Hillman3 min read
Mind the WCS Gap
Canadian differentials have widened by ~$6-$8 USD/Bbl in the last six weeks. It’s likely that the cause of the sudden widening in Canadian spre...
· AEGIS Market Analytics3 min read