Crude Oil
WTI, Brent, OPEC+, inventories and differentials.
Let The Energy Squeeze Begin; Oil Prices Surge to a Seven-Year High
A number of fundamental and market forces are aligning to push prices higher. Oil prices have been trading near their highest level since 2014, and many a...
· Nick Hillman4 min read
Jet and Diesel Consumers: Could Prices Be Much Higher in 2022?
Hedging can address either (or both!) the fuel price and oil price that cause most of the inflation. With insufficient oil production from OPEC+, minimal...
· Matt Marshall4 min read
Canada Has Some Good Pipeline News...For a Change
Enbridge Announces Line 3 Replacement In Service October 1st Canada has indeed hit a milestone as the Enbridge Line 3 Replacement Project has come to a co...
· AEGIS Market Analytics3 min read
Oversupply of Oil Forecast For 2022, But OPEC+ Still Holds the Key
Oil prices have made a dramatic comeback this year, climbing $25/Bbl to $73/Bbl for WTI as of September 23. Will oil’s strength continue into 2022, o...
· Jay Stevens2 min read
Enbridge Line 3 Replacement Project Nears Completion
After years of legal and regulatory challenges and delays, Enbridge has announced that it will offer 620 MBbl/d of capacity on Line 3 for October, represen...
· AEGIS Market Analytics1 min read
OPEC+ Has More Supply Than Oil Markets Can Handle
OPEC+’s stated spare capacity is near 5.8 MMBbl/d when accounting for Iran sanctions. The group’s planned supply hikes may leave it without s...
· Nick Hillman2 min read
WTI's $70 Price Swing - Has Price Volatility Changed Producer Hedging Behavior?
Hedging behavior is an interesting science to us. Our advisory discipline considers each individual company’s corporate objectives, risk tolera...
· AEGIS Market Analytics3 min read
UAE Ruins the OPEC Party
It appears UAE is willing to blow up an OPEC+ deal so it can produce more of its own oil, but the situation is fluid. During the day Thursday, repor...
· Matt Marshall2 min read
Canadian Crude Update
Canadian Differentials Widen; Enbridge Heavy Crude Apportionment Increases to 52% Friday marked the last day of trading for June Canadian crude differenti...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
OPEC Doesn’t Have Enough Oil
Spare capacity could be exhausted in under 12 months if OPEC’s new global demand and supply estimates come true in 2021. In its latest month...
· Jay Stevens3 min read
Bakken Clearbrook Prices Surge on Supply Disruptions; DAPL Hearing Looms
Since mid-February, Bakken Clearbrook prices have rallied into positive territory versus WTI for the first time since April 2020. Weather-induced supply di...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
WTI Curve Close To Steepest Backwardation In Past 15 Years
The near-term WTI contract at $65.80/Bbl is $6.8/Bbl, or 11%, higher than WTI one year from now. A backwardated curve can mean that oil is in higher deman...
· AEGIS Market Analytics1 min read
Producer 2021 Guidance Implies Nearly Flat Oil Production
The theme of large oil independents and supermajors for 2021 is to keep production flat, pay down debt, and create more free-cash flow. For a sample of lar...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
U.S. Production Could Rise 1 MMBbl/d. OPEC Knows This.
A six-dollar rise in 2022 and eight-dollar rise in 4Q2021 WTI prices suggest production could surge by near 1 MMBbl/d by 2023. That is, if operators'…
· AEGIS Market Analytics3 min read
Saudi Arabia Teases Output Increases As Brent Nears $65
Saudi Arabia plans to unwind 1 MMBbl/d of supply cuts starting in April.* The action would end the 1 MMBbl/d of unilateral curtailments the country announc...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
EIA, IEA, OPEC Marginally Cut 2021 Demand Growth Estimates, but OPEC+ Firmly in Control of Oil Markets
The three major agencies (EIA, IEA, OPEC) released their monthly reports this week, and each marginally cut 2021 worldwide demand growth estimates from the...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
Update* - DAPL Still In Limbo As New Administration Takes Office
*UPDATE 2/11/2021 The Army Corps of Engineers requested a two-month delay on whether to shutter DAPL Analysts at ClearView Energy partners see the d...
· AEGIS Market Analytics4 min read
Cushing, PADD 3 Stocks Decline As Refineries Soak Up Crude in January
Crude inventories at Cushing have decreased by over 10 MMBbls or 300 MBbl/d during January, while PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) inventories also declined by 12 MMBbl...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
OPEC Committee Discusses Policy As WTI Breaches $55/Bbl
The OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMCC) and Joint Technical Committee met this week to review global oil fundamentals and the best path to r...
· AEGIS Market Analytics3 min read
Biden Signs Executive Order Barring a Key Permit for The Keystone XL Pipeline
On inauguration day, incoming-president Biden issued a flurry of executive orders, chief among them being the revocation of a key permit for the…
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
The (WTI) CMA Roll: 2020's Wild Round Trip
The WTI CMA Roll, a contributor in most producer pricing formulas, can now be opportunistically locked in, once again. The WTI Calendar Month Average Ro...
· AEGIS Market Analytics1 min read
Logical Hedge Weekly TLC Update For December 21, 2020
Dear Client, If you missed the news on Friday, R^2 has been acquired by AEGIS Hedging Solutions. We are optimistic that the only changes you'll notice is...
· AEGIS Market Analytics1 min read
Mid-Cush Spread Rallies; AEGIS Trade Volume Spikes
Oil prices in Midland, Texas have been outpacing the rise of WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, since early November. The WTI Midland-WTI Cushing spread (Mid-Cush) ...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read
Lower Output, Strengthening Oil Demand Prompts EIA to Lift its WTI Forecast for '20 and '21
Lower supply expectations in the U.S. and abroad, and expectations for a recovery in global oil demand, will support prices through the end of 2021, accord...
· AEGIS Market Analytics2 min read