June 20, 2023

• LME Aluminum 3M Select is down $6.5/mt, slightly adding to yesterday’s losses.
  • Last trade was $2,228.5/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Over the weekend, government officials in China’s Yunnan province announced they were abandoning all power rationing to the region’s aluminum smelters. This will allow approximately half of the 2 million mt of capacity that has gone offline to resume production, according to estimates from Shanghai Metal Market.
  • Despite the recent economic stimulus measures by the greater Chinese government, and recovering production, demand should be stable, based on SMM comments. (Source: Shanghai Metal Market)
• LME Copper 3M Select is up $2/mt, recouping some of yesterday’s losses.
  • Last trade was $8,544/mt (6:45 AM CST)
  • Iran’s copper mine production could soar over the coming years. Last Friday, official Iranian media reported what is thought to be the largest copper discovery in the Middle East. If verified, the discovery would add about 3 billion mt to global copper reserves.
  • As Bloomberg commented, this discovery will also help alleviate some of the supply tightness that could occur due to the energy transition.
  • Iran is already one of the largest copper miners in the world. At approximately 354,000 mt, the country was responsible for about 1.6% of global mine production last year. (Source: Bloomberg/Bloomberg Intelligence, USGS)
• Prompt month CME HRC Steel last traded at $925/st, down $2/st on the day (6:45 AM).
  • US Steel has raised its flat-rolled prices by $50/st. They did not announce or set a minimum price during this notice. This is the first major price hike announcement since March, according to Argus. (Source: Argus)

Note: Clients with AEGIS Platform access can see this and other research, plus hedge portfolio reporting and tools here. 

Price Indications

Today's Charts

AEGIS Insights

06/14/2023: AEGIS Factor Matrices: Most important variables affecting metals prices

05/17/2023: Cobalt End-Users Should Hedge While Market Is Oversupplied

05/3/2023: Copper Producers Can benefit From Hedging Both Inputs and Production

6/15/2023: Russia's Rusal to build new alumina plant for $4.8 billion on the Baltic Sea

6/14/2023: Forecast For Jun 13-July 12: Weakening Consumption And Expectations For Production Resumptions In Yunnan To Weigh On Aluminium Prices

6/14/2023: Yunnan Likely To Issue Specific Power Load Distribution Notice To Local Aluminium Smelters, Bringing Hope To Partial Restarts Of Nearly 2 Million Mt Of Idled Capacity

6/13/2023: US HRC: Prices fall to lowest since mid-Feb

6/13/2023: US HDG/CRC: Mills drop prices for orders

6/13/2023: China's Yunnan set to boost power to aluminium smelters, sources say

6/12/2023: Rio Tinto to invest $1.1 billion to expand aluminum smelter in Canada

6/12/2023: Russian aluminium stocks at LME grow, boosting demand for Indian alternative

6/12/2023: Glencore, automakers to back $1 bln nickel, copper SPAC deal in Brazil

6/8/2023: NorthAm auto production estimate increases

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