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California LCFS |
Oregon LCFS |
Price March 24th, 2023 |
$ 69.00 |
$ 124.00 |
Average Weekly Price Mar. 20th - Mar. 24th, 2023 |
$ 68.80 |
$ 123.60 |
Average Monthly Price March 2023 |
$ 68.22 |
$ 122.89 |
Prompt LCFS prices lost ground after firming for two consecutive weeks on trader demand. Prompt credit prices gained $2/t, or 2.8%, week-over-week. Losses were limited further along the forward curve.
The forward structure remained in a stable contango with a wider carry developing into Q4.
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D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
D6 |
Price March 24th, 2023 |
$ 1.93 |
$ 1.56 | $ 1.55 | $ 1.51 |
Average Weekly Price Mar. 20th - Mar. 24th, 2023 |
$ 1.93 |
$ 1.55 | $ 1.54 | $ 1.51 |
Average Monthly Price March 2023 |
$ 1.97 |
$ 1.58 | $ 1.57 | $ 1.54 |
RIN prices were flat to neglibily lower as the market struggled to find a bottom amid consistent thin market participation.
The 2023 D4 RINs fell 1.1¢/RIN, while prior year credits shed 1.6¢/RIN, narrowing the inter-vintage D4 spread to under 10¢/RIN.
Fresh RIN production data showed D4 RIN generation remained robust at nearly 514 million credits. This, along with the issue of a new Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) petition for 2022 continued to provide a bearish undercurrent to the marketplace.
The chance of a pivot in the EPA's approach to SREs continued to provide underlying bearish sentiment. A reversal or dovish change in SRE policy would have an outsized impact on the D6 category.
Market activity is likely to remain curtailed ahead of guidance from the EPA expected in June.
Questions? Contact our team for more information: environmental@aegis-hedging.com