Metals
Aluminum, copper, steel and precious metals.
Mexico's New Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Imports Create Uncertainty in US Markets
On April 23, 2024, the Mexican government announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from countries with which it does not have a free trade ag...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Midwest Premium Buyers Should Hedge While Prices Hover at 3-Year Lows, and Demand Appears To Be Stabilizing
Some market participants have recently suggested that the Red Sea shipping crisis could cause the CME Midwest Premium (MWP) to rally. Although this is plau...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
Aluminum Consumers Should Still Implement Hedges, Even Though Russia Sanctions Mean Little
On Friday, February 23, the Biden administration implemented a slew of sanctions against Russia, but none will have a severe impact on the LME aluminum mar...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
China's Real Estate Woes Provide Opportunity for Copper Consumers
LME Copper prices are essentially flat on the year while the market struggles with both supply and demand issues. The world’s largest miner, Chile&rs...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Year-End Review of LME Aluminum, Copper, CME HRC Steel and Hedging Implications for 2024
Prices for LME Aluminum, LME Copper, and CME HRC Steel were all volatile this year for a variety of reasons. Below, we will highlight some recent headlines...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
Aluminum and Copper Markets Diverge but Hedging Opportunities Persist for End-Users
The aluminum and copper markets have diverged in recent weeks. The aluminum market hasn’t fundamentally changed, but copper is going through some maj...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Aluminum Buyers Should Hedge Alongside Chinese Importers
China’s primary aluminum importers have significantly increased purchases in recent months due to low global prices and improving arbitrage. Although...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Despite Price Slump, Hedging is Still Feasible for Steel Producers
The spread between CME HRC Steel and CME MW Busheling Scrap is generally used as a proxy for steel mill profitability. This spread currently sits at about ...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Growing Secondary Aluminum Supply Could Further Weigh on Prices
Several larger miners are expanding into secondary aluminum production due to growing scrap supplies and low entry costs, according to the Wall Street Jour...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
Steel Buyers Can Strengthen Pricing Power During Industry Consolidation
A potential US Steel acquisition could result in less competition and higher steel prices. HRC steel price risk can be mitigated with very simple hedging s...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Aluminum Prices Could Hinge on Chinese Stimulus
As we are just past the halfway point in 2023, AEGIS would like to give our customers a quick year-to-date overview of the aluminum market. The strong rall...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Copper Prices Could Remain Subdued While African Production Grows
As of this writing, copper prices at the LME are nearly flat this year, despite subpar demand from top consumer China. Meanwhile, the world’s top pro...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Copper Producers Can Benefit From Hedging Both Inputs and Production
To meet rising demand, copper production from established producers such as Chile and Peru has risen dramatically in the past decade. Production costs for ...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
Why Are Steel Prices Increasing?
Most American steel producers have recently raised their base price for physical sales to $1,100/st or higher, up from around $500/st in late November. The...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
European Aluminum Smelters Improve, but Not Enough
As of 2/23/2023, AEGIS estimates that approximately 1.16 million mt, or 26% of Europe’s annual smelter capacity, has gone offline since October 2021 ...
· Chris Stadele6 min read
Will Aluminum's Rally Continue?
LME aluminum prices have rallied nearly 6% so far this year, due in part to an expected recovery in Chinese demand after their government completely remove...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Peruvian Protests Could Support Copper Prices
LME copper prices have jumped nearly 11% so far this year, due in part to the political protests and unrest that have created supply chain issues for Peruv...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Nickel Prices Could Remain Volatile Into 2023
LME nickel prices are down over 8% so far in 2023. However, this pullback is relatively small, given nickel finished up over 44% last year, making it one o...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
Nickel Prices Rally While 2023 Supply Picture Remains Unclear
LME nickel prices are up nearly 5% in December. Similarly, nickel is up 36% on the year, making it one of the best-performing LME metals. AEGIS notes that ...
· Chris Stadele2 min read
Could Peruvian Protests Affect Zinc Production or Prices?
LME zinc prices have jumped over 12% since the lows of early November but are still down about 13% on the year. AEGIS notes that the recent uptick in price...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Does the Copper Rally Have Legs?
LME Copper prices surged over 10% in November, the first monthly price gain since April 2022. AEGIS notes that the recent uptick in prices could be tied to...
· Chris Stadele3 min read
Do Chinese Aluminum Import and Export Flows Affect LME Prices?
The price levels of $1,500/mt, $2,700/mt, and $3,300/mt seem to be important inflection points for LME Aluminum prices. We largely attribute this to Chines...
· Chris Stadele4 min read
AEGIS Primer on LME Aluminum Price History
The Russia-Ukraine conflict caused LME aluminum prices to eclipse $4,000 in early March 2022. Prices have tumbled since then and are down about 45% from the highs and about 20% on the year. However, prices are still holding at a historically high level.
· Chris Stadele3 min read
European Aluminum Smelters Might Have Negative Margins Through 2023
Aluminum smelting is a very electricity-incentive business; therefore, some smelters could be susceptible to electricity price shocks. Since October 2021, ...
· Chris Stadele7 min read