The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.43 to $58.17/Bbl on Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
Oil prices found support after US-led peace talks failed to deliver a breakthrough in ending the Russia-Ukraine war
President Trump said progress was made in discussions on Sunday with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy on a potential peace deal, though he mentioned it could take several weeks to finalize
Despite today’s gains, oil remains on track for a fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, marking the longest losing streak in more than two years
Prices continue to face pressure from concerns over a global supply glut, driven by rising output from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers
China vows to support growth in 2026 (Bloomberg)
The Ministry of Finance plans to boost fiscal spending and strengthen local government finances through more effective transfer payments
China’s aggressive crude stockpiling is expected to persist, supported by energy security priorities and helping absorb excess global supply
China is on pace to receive a record monthly volume of crude as the world’s largest importer moves barrels from floating storage onshore
Crude deliveries are projected to rise nearly 10% month-over-month to a record 12.2 MMBbl/d in December, according to Kpler data
This coincides with onshore crude inventories swelling to a record 1.2 BBbls
Natural gas rises ahead of January contract expiry
The prompt contract is higher by about 8c this morning, extending gains from last week (8:00 AM)
Lower-48 population-weighted average temperatures are forecast to be mostly below the ten-year average for the next two weeks, supporting gas demand
Dry gas production remains above 109 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P
LNG feedgas demand is back above 20 Bcf/d
Two EIA storage reports to be released this week
This morning, the EIA will release natural gas inventory data for the week ending December 19, while data for the week ending December 26 will be released on Wednesday December 31
Today’s report is expected to show a withdrawal of about -170 Bcf, according to the Bloomberg survey
Wednesday’s release will likely be much smaller as temperatures warmed significantly for that reporting week
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