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OPEC+ Announces Pause; Haynesville Project Launches Open Season

OPEC+’s modest December hike to be followed by a pause
- The WTI prompt-month contract dropped $0.05 to $60.93/Bbl as of Monday morning (8:04 AM CT)
- OPEC+ agreed to restore 137 MBbl/d for December, in line with the increases scheduled for October and November
- The group announced a pause in output hikes for Q1, citing typically weaker seasonal demand. Delegates noted the January pause reflects expectations of a seasonal slowdown
  - This marks the first halt in adding barrels since the supply restoration began in April
  - “The pause is a prudent one given the uncertainty around the supply picture for the first quarter,” said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital
Ukrainian drone strike ignites tanker and damages Tuapse oil facilities
- A drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea region set an oil tanker ablaze and damaged loading infrastructure at the Tuapse port
- Bloomberg reports that oil intake at the Tuapse refinery will be suspended for several days following the strikes
  - The Tuapse refinery has a processing capacity of roughly 240 MBbl/d

Regional Market Insights

Updated regularly with the most important market moves and outlooks.

Natural gas is higher this morning, but down from overnight highs
- The December Henry Hub contract traded as high as $4.30/MMbtu overnight, although prices have moderated since then, now trading near $4.15/MMbtu (8:15 AM)
- Weather forecasts turned colder over the weekend, with Lower-48 population-weighted temperatures cooling in the 6-10 day forecast period relative to Friday’s forecast
- An LNG cargo is in route from Qatar to Golden Pass LNG to be used to cool down facility equipment ahead of the Train 1 startup
  - The cargo is expected to arrive in the first week of December
  - The import of a cooldown cargo typically occurs a few months in advance of material liquefaction volumes, putting Golden Pass on track for startup this winter
New Haynesville project launches open season (NGI)
- Gulf South Pipeline Co. has launched an open season for the proposed Texas Gateway Project, a 155-mile and 1.45 Bcf/d expansion linking Haynesville supply with demand in Southern Louisiana
- The project will increase capacity between the Carthage and Gillis hubs, supporting the next wave of LNG buildout along the Gulf Coast
- Texas Gateway is scheduled to enter service by November 2029, around the same time as Woodside’s Louisiana LNG