Market Insights > First Look

Ukraine Attacks Keep Oil Bid; Natural Gas Slides Under $3/MMBtu

Oil rises on Ukraine strikes against Russian infrastructure
- WTI prompt-month futures traded at $63.48/Bbl early Friday (7:45 AM CT) as prices extended gains on concerns over supply disruptions
- Ukrainian drone attacks targeted Russia’s Baltic crude-export hubs, temporarily halting operations at Primorsk and three pumping stations feeding the Ust-Luga terminal, according to Bloomberg
- Kyiv has stepped up strikes on Russian energy assets in recent weeks to curb Moscow’s fuel supply to the front lines and reduce export revenues.
- Meanwhile, the US is expected to press G7 allies to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Russian oil purchases by China and India
Goldman sees continued Chinese crude stockpiling through 2026
- Goldman Sachs expects China to accelerate its crude inventory builds this year and into 2026, supported by lower prices and an emphasis on energy security
- Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman, projects Chinese inventories will rise by 500 MBbl/d over the next five quarters
- The bank’s bullish outlook, however, appears more aggressive than other estimates of China’s recent stockpiling pace

Regional Market Insights

Updated regularly with the most important market moves and outlooks.

Natural gas heads for a weekly loss, with prices back below $3/MMbtu
- The October Henry Hub contract is currently down 12c on the week, while the Winter ‘25/’26 strip is down 5c (8:00 AM)
- Weather forecasts shifted cooler today, although Lower-48 temperatures remain forecast to be slightly higher than the ten-year average over the next two weeks, supporting power demand
Potential EPA rule change could speed up power plant permitting (S&P)
- The EPA announced plans to issue new rules pertaining to power plant permitting that would change the definition of “begin actual construction”
- EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said, "For years, Clean Air Act permitting has been an obstacle to innovation and growth," and that "We are continuing to fix this broken system. Today's guidance is another step to allow the build-out of essential power generation, data centers, and manufacturing projects."
- This is the latest in a series of measures by the new administration, with the goal off streamlining energy and manufacturing projects