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First Look - Crude Uncertainty Deepens, LNG Buildout Gains Momentum

Oil pulls back as markets weigh Fed uncertainty and geopolitical risk
- WTI prompt-month futures fell $1.17 to $63.63/Bbl as of 7:45 AM CT on Tuesday, snapping a four-session rally
- Crude retreated as the recent rally lost momentum, with traders awaiting new direction from supply fundamentals and the Fed
- “Oil prices remain in a tight range amid geopolitical volatility and relatively resilient fundamentals,” said Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh
- The Department of Homeland Security announced plans to double tariffs on all Indian imports, effective Wednesday, as part of a broader Trump administration strategy to pressure New Delhi over its continued purchases of Russian crude
  - The White House has framed the move as part of a broader effort to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine
  - Despite the looming tariffs, Indian refiners expect to keep most of their Russian crude volumes in place in the near term, according to Bloomberg
Jet fuel demand growth decelerates after post-COVID rebound
- The EIA reports US jet fuel consumption growth has slowed in 2025, following several years of rapid gains after the pandemic slump
- Growth is expected to continue decelerating through 2026, falling below both the accelerated post-2020 pace and the longer-term average seen in the 2010s
- Slower growth reflects two main factors, weakening air travel demand due to macroeconomic headwinds, and improved fuel efficiency from a newer commercial aircraft fleet

Regional Market Insights

Updated regularly with the most important market moves and outlooks.

Natural gas is slightly higher, with prices remaining near recent lows
- Lower-48 population weighted temperatures are still forecast to trend lower over the next two weeks, and remain below the ten-year average
- LNG feedgas demand dropped to 16.4 Bcf/d, compared to 17.5 Bcf/d over the weekend
NextDecade seeks additional pipeline connections for Rio Grande LNG (NGI)
- A representative for Next Decade said, “Rio Grande has identified the need for an additional source of gas supply during commissioning activities, as well as post-commissioning to ensure reliability of supply”
- The company is looking to build a lateral which would connect to the Valley Crossing Pipeline
- In addition to this connection, Enbridge plans to start construction on the 4.5 Bcf/d Rio Bravo pipeline this year, which will supply Rio Grande LNG with gas from the Agua Dulce hub, beginning service in mid-2026