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First Look - Oil drops after OPEC+ completes major quota hike

Oil falls after OPEC announces another large production hike
- The WTI prompt-month contract fell $1.52 to $65.81/Bbl Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- Over the weekend, the group announced another production quota increase of 547 MBBl/d for the month of September
  - The large hike completes the full ~2.5 MMBbl/d unwind a full year ahead of schedule which includes the UAE’s required production increase of 300 MBbl/d
- The Saudi-led group still has another tranche of voluntary cuts left to unwind amounting to ~1.6 MMBbl/d
- OPEC+ announced an unexpected follow-up meeting to be held September 7
- For now, the group’s message is “that all options remain on the table, including bringing those barrels back, pausing increases for now, or even reversing the recent policy action,” according to Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets
- According to Goldman Sachs, OPEC+ is expected to keep its production quota unchanged after September
Russian crude flows despite US pressure (Bloomberg)
- At least four tankers offloaded millions of barrels of Russian crude at Indian refineries over the weekend, with an additional 2.2 million barrels scheduled for delivery
- Indian Prime Minister Modi called on citizens to support domestic goods while his government signaled continued imports of Russian oil
- The White House warned of further action if India maintains its purchases of Russian crude

Natural gas is trading lower, with the prompt month near $3/MMbtu
- Last week, gas prices fell about 7c, with the September contract trading near year-to-date lows around $3/MMbtu
- The Winter ‘25/’26 seasonal strip is down 10c to $3.96/MMbtu, while Summer ’26 is down 8c to $3.74/MMbtu
- While Lower-48 average temperatures are forecast to be below the ten-year average this week, they are forecast to climb next week, supporting gas demand
Antero sees higher Northeast demand (S&P)
- Antero is expecting tighter gas market conditions over the next few years, saying, ”Combined with the continued power demand growth, the natural gas market is expected to be materially undersupplied during this period, which we expect to support higher prices next year,”
- Antero’s senior VP of gas marketing said that an additional 2 Bcf/d of new gas demand has been announced in the past 90 days
- The company has been looking into natural gas-for-power deals in the region, to supply data centers, which was described as accretive to overall pricing

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