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First Look - Oil climbs as President Trump steps up his pressure on Moscow

Oil rises as Trump increases pressure on Russia
- After giving Russia 10 more days to reach a ceasefire deal with Ukraine, President Trump threatened India with a 25% tariff “plus a penalty” for its large purchases of Russian energy
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.26 to $68.47/Bbl Wednesday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- Trump said he is not worried about the impact secondary sanctions would have on the oil market noting that the US could increase production,
  - “We have so much oil in our country. We’ll just step it up, even further” the president said in regard to oil production
- The American Petroleum Institute reported US crude stockpiles rose by 1.5 MMBbls last week, with official government data due later on Wednesday
OPEC+ strategy hurting rival producers (Bloomberg)
- According to Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy, OPEC+’s long-term strategy to recover market share is coming to fruition
- Data from Wood Mackenzie estimates that supply growth in non-OPEC countries, led by countries like Brazil, Canada, and Guyana, will shrink more than 80% between now and 2027, followed by a near complete halt
- Rystad Energy has also slashed its outlook for non-OPEC+ supply growth

Natural gas is trading lower, with September now the prompt month
- The September Henry Hub contract fell to a new year-to-date low this morning, after the August contract expired yesterday
- While this week was the hottest of the summer so far, based on Lower-48 population weighted average temperatures, the next two weeks will see cooler temperatures, reducing gas demand
- Gas production is slightly lower today, after reaching 107 Bcf/d yesterday, according to S&P data
Eastern Gas Transmission proposes Pennsylvania pipeline project (S&P)
- EGTS has proposed a pipeline expansion which would add 550 MMcf/d of new capacity from western Pennsylvania to delivery points in Ohio and Pennsylvania
- Called the Appalachian Reliability Project, it would add new compressors and about four miles of new pipe
- Increased pipeline capacity in the northeast would allow for more production, as pipelines in the region are often fully utilized
Trump administration may halt wind development on federal land (BBG)
- The administration is considering halting development of wind turbines on federal lands and waters, with President Trump saying that “windmills are a disgrace”
- The Secretary of the Interior ordered a review of the agency’s approval process for wind projects
- While this could endanger some projects, the vast majority of US wind generators are not located or planned for federal land