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First Look - Oil slides more than $1/Bbl as Israel nears truce with Hezbollah

Oil is trading lower by nearly $1.50, as Israel nears truce with Hezbollah
- The Israeli ambassador to the US said that Israel is “close to a deal” with Hezbollah
  - A ceasefire would reduce the geopolitical risk premium in crude prices
- Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent pushed for increased US oil production
OPEC+ moves December 1 meeting online (BBG)
- OPEC+ plans to hold its next meeting online rather than in-person, with the meeting scheduled for this weekend
- OPEC members will decide whether to begin gradually restoring oil production or to keep withholding supply
- The current plan is to begin reviving production of 2.2 MMBbl/d with monthly installments starting in January
- If OPEC+ does bring production back it could lead to an oversupplied market in 2025

Natural gas prices gained as the overall idea of a generally cold weather pattern was maintained over the weekend
- December futures were up 18c to $3.31 Monday morning (8:02 CDT), with contract settlement tomorrow
- Weather models added 7.6 HDDs vs Friday, adding to the two-week forecast demand estimate (CWG)
  - The European model shows large swaths of cooler-than-normal temps blanketing the Midwest/SouthEast/Northeast by Friday the 29^th
  - December is estimated to be the coldest since 2017 in terms of gas-weighted HDDs at 869 HDDs, according to The Commodity Weather Group
Henry Hub cash gas prices rallied over $1.00 over the last two weeks, spurring more supply
- Dry gas production hovered around 103.3 Bcf/d over the weekend, up from 100.2 Bcf/d two weeks ago (S&P global data)
- Appalachian supply is where most of the production change has taken place, up about 3 Bcf/d over the same period