Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Kazakhstan outperforms OPEC quota | Northeast gas supply rebounds

Oil is trading slightly lower, reversing some gains from yesterday
- Oil prices have been trading in a narrow range lately, as market participants weigh the impacts of a mixed supply-demand balance and a stronger dollar
- Inflation remained firm based on todays CPI report, with the market still anticipating another Federal Reserve rate cut in December
Kazakhstan overproduces OPEC+ quota again (BBG)
- Oil production from the country fell sharply in October as maintenance forced the closing of one of its major oil fields, but still produced more than their OPEC+ quota
- Kazakhstan produced a total of 1.29 MMBbl/d in October, down 292 MBbl/d from September, but still 90 MBbl/d higher than their OPEC+ quota
- Iraq and Kazakhstan have consistently produced more than their quotas
- While OPEC plans to bring supply back to the market soon, the start date has been pushed to the beginning of January from the original date of October, as market conditions have been weaker than anticipated

Natural gas traded lower Wednesday morning by 6c to $2.84 (7:54 CT) as weather models showed losses in demand over the past 24 hours
- Weather model ensembles lost 10.6 HDDs, with America losing 13.4 HDDs and the European -2.9 HDDs (CWG)
- Yesterday, Venture Global formally requested FERC approval to introduce hazardous fluids to LTS Block1, seeking to do so by Nov. 15, 2024 (Criterion)
  - Venture’s Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 is still on track to start up meaningful volume by December or January
Northeast gas supply has rebounded in the past few days
- Appalachia's dry gas supply has climbed 1.745 Bcf/d to 33.93 Bcf/d since last Saturday, according to S&P flow data
- The rise in production comes even as in-basin TETCO M2 cash traded at $0.97/MMtbu yesterday
- Higher short-term demand in the region has likely allowed supply to move this week, even as prices have continued to languish