Oil is higher by more than $1.50 to $79.30, ahead of expected inventory draw
The API is forecasting a 5.5 MMBbl draw from US inventories, which would be the first draw in seven weeks
US crude output could rise more than expected (BBG)
The EIA has increased its forecast for 2024 average US production to 13.19 MMBbl/d from its prior forecast of 13.1 MMBbl/d
Rising output from non-OPEC countries threatens OPEC's attempts to reduce supply and balance global crude markets and poses a large bearish risk to prices
Despite higher production from the US, Guyana, Brazil, and Canada, the EIA expects production to fall short of consumption by 260 MBbl/d in 2024, while they expect 2025 to be oversupplied by 360 MBbl/d
Major Russian refinery on fire following drone attack (BBG)
The Ryazan refinery, one of Russia’s largest, was hit by a Ukrainian drone leading to a large fire at the facility
In the past two days facilities accounting for about 10% of Russia’s refining capacity have been hit by drones, but it is unknown how much capacity has been taken offline
The attacks could lead to reduced product exports from Russia
Natural gas prices trade lower amid a mild weather outlook and expectations of storage builds in the tail end of the withdrawal season
April ’24 Henry Hub is down 4.4c this morning to trade around $1.670/MMBtu
The Summer ’24 strip is down 2.9c to $2.195, and the Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 1.9c to $3.342
Today's Euro Ens forecasts a broad warming trend across all regions, peaking this week, with a slight cooldown expected by late March
Lower 48 natural gas production remained below 100 Bcf/d for a second day, reflecting a slight recovery in the Northeast but declines elsewhere, marking the lowest levels since mid-January (Criterion)
Additionally, the EIA, in its monthly STEO, revised 2024 U.S. natural gas forecasts, reducing both production and consumption estimates by nearly 1 Bcf/d to 103.4 Bcf/d and 89.7 Bcf/d, respectively
NextDecade targets train 4 final investment decision at Texas LNG facility for late 2024 (PGJ)
NextDecade aims for an FID on the fourth liquefaction train at its Rio Grande LNG facility in Texas by 2H 2024, following previous delays
The company is working to finalize commercial arrangements for Train 4 in the upcoming months, with plans to proceed with Train 5 following the Train 4 FID
A successful FID for Train 4 and 5 requires contracting an additional 3 MTPA of LNG on a long-term basis for each train, contingent on TotalEnergies exercising its purchase options for 1.5 MTPA for both trains
As of yesterday, Freeport LNG's feedgas intake plummeted to 758 MMcf from 1463 MMcf on March 3 amid operational setbacks, according to LSEG data
The facility faced a significant intake reduction, coinciding with a train outage and delayed repairs
Train 3's anticipated return to service this week, already two weeks behind schedule, follows a history of disruptions, including a major 2022 fire and frequent shutdowns across all trains in January 2024
Freeport said on Monday it would not comment on the changes in its feedgas usage
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