Base Metals Dashboard - Week Ending November 15, 2024

Base metals fell further this week as Chinese consumption continued to weaken and investors remained disapointed in Chinese government stimulus aimed at supporting the economy. However, prices rebounded on Friday as China canceled a tax rebate that previously helped boost exports.

Aluminum

Bauxite shipments from Brazil's Juruti mine, run by Alcoa, remain shut as a ship is blocking the ports waterway. The shutdown is exacerbating supply chain issues which have led alumina prices to record highs. Alcoa has not indicated when the blockage will be removed, allowing exports to resume. (Bloomberg)
The cancelation of a Chinese tax rebate led aluminum prices sharply higher on Friday. This rebate had helped fuel a decades-long boom in exports and helped sheild the industry from overcapacity. ING Bank said, "This could be seen as a strategic move in the context of trade tensions following Trump's win in the US presidential elections." (Bloomberg)

Copper

A strike at the Chilean port of Ventanas could threaten copper shipments. The strike enetered its second day on Friday, and the operating company of the port was unable to determine a timetable for when shipmetns may resume. The port loads semi-processed copper for export, and while there are currently no ships docked at the port, one is scheduled to arrive on Friday. (Bloomberg)

Other Important LME and CME Metals & Markets

Purchasing managers’ index for China’s steel industry has hit the highest level since 2018, amid record domestic output. The rebound comes while iron ore inventories in Chinese ports and steel product inventories have seen higher-than-seasonal average drawdowns. (Bloomberg)

LME Aluminum

LME Aluminum 3M settled at $2,649.50/mt, up $29/mt on the week.

Aluminum prices were up this week. The futures forward curve remains in a contango, meaning nearby prices are lower than forward prices. Aluminum consumers concerned about increasing prices might consider hedging future needs by buying swaps or call options. Depending on risk tolerance, end-users might consider strategies that use only swaps or options or a combination of both. The aluminum market has sufficient liquidity to use swaps and options. Please get in touch with AEGIS for specific strategies that fit your operations.

Midwest Premium

Prompt month CME MWP last traded/settled at 21.7¢/lb this week.

The CME Midwest Premium market is now in a contango from the November‘24 contract on forward. The CME Midwest Premium swap market is thinly traded, with no options market. Hedging in this thinly traded market is challenging, so we recommend using limit orders. Please get in touch with AEGIS for specific strategies that fit your operations.

* Please note all these charts are for desktop only. *

LME Copper

LME Copper 3M settled at $9,002.50/mt, down 441/mt on the week.

Compared to last Friday, LME Copper's forward curve has shifted vertically lower and is in contango throughout 2024 and early 2025. The copper market has sufficient liquidity to use swaps and options. Depending on their risk tolerance, consumers might consider strategies that use only swaps, options, or a combination of both. Please get in touch with AEGIS for specific strategies that fit your operations.

LME Nickel

LME Nickel 3M settled at $15,540/mt, down $857/mt on the week.

As prices were down this week, nickel’s forward curve also modestly shifted lower. It remains in a steep contango, meaning that nearby prices are lower than futures prices. The nickel market has sufficient liquidity to use swaps and options. Depending upon your risk tolerance, consumers might consider strategies that use only swaps or options or a combination of both. Please get in touch with AEGIS for specific strategies that fit your operations.