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California LCFS |
Oregon LCFS |
Price March 10th, 2023 |
$ 70.00 |
$ 123.00 |
Average Weekly Price Mar. 6th - Mar. 10th, 2023 |
$ 67.00 |
$ 122.40 |
Average Monthly Price March 2023 |
$ 66.25 |
$ 122.25 |
The LCFS market recovered as trader buying emerged last week. Prompt credit prices gained $1.2/t, or 1.8%, week-over-week. Issues surrounding some pending RD facilities could have spurred buying. The LCFS marketplace remained marred by structural oversupply and record credit inventories. The forward structure remained flat for the first half the year, with a wider contango emerging for Q3 and Q4.
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D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
D6 |
Price March 10th, 2023 |
$ 2.01 |
$ 1.59 | $ 1.58 | $ 1.56 |
Average Weekly Price Mar. 6th - Mar. 10th, 2023 |
$ 2.02 |
$ 1.61 | $ 1.60 | $ 1.57 |
Average Monthly Price March 2023 |
$ 2.01 |
$ 1.61 | $ 1.60 | $ 1.57 |
D4 RINs were largely sideways as refiner buying tempered. Robust January D4 RIN production and the introduction of two new SREs, one for 2022 and one for 2023, continued to provide a bearish undercurrent to the marketplace.
The chance of a pivot in the EPA's approach to SREs continued to provide underlying bearish sentiment and D6 RINs were marginaly lower. A reversal or dovish change in SRE policy would have an outsized impact on the D6 category. D3 RINs posted a modest recovery for a second consecutive week with the market holding aaround $2.02/RIN for the week.
Questions? Contact our team for more information: environmental@aegis-hedging.com