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California LCFS |
Oregon LCFS |
Price February 24th, 2023 |
$ 69.00 |
$ 122.50 |
Average Weekly Price Feb. 20th - Feb. 24th, 2023 |
$ 70.50 |
$ 122.50 |
Average Monthly Price February 2023 |
$ 64.21 |
$ 122.12 |
The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) market surged as the California Air Resource Board held a hawkish workshop. Prompt credits reached as high as $74/t on February 22 before retreating to $69/t in the following session. On average, prompt LCFS prices gained $6.70/t, or 10.5%, week-over-week. We anticipate the LCFS market to return to the low $60s/t as structural oversupply will pressure prices following the bullish headline.
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D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
D6 |
Price February 24th, 2023 |
$ 2.09 |
$ 1.80 |
$ 1.63 |
$ 1.61 |
Average Weekly Price Feb. 20th - Feb. 24th, 2023 |
$ 2.08 |
$ 1.82 |
$ 1.65 |
$ 1.63 |
Average Monthly Price February 2023 |
$ 2.11 |
$ 1.81 |
$ 1.61 |
$ 1.59 |
D4 RINs posted modest gains on average amid carry-through buying following comments from the advanced biofuels industry strongly urging the EPA to lift mandates in the proposed ‘Set Rule.’ The rule outlines renewable fuel obligations from 2023 through 2025. The Advanced Biofuels Association and others urged the EPA to lift the advanced mandates in the proposed ‘Set Rule’ to reflect the volumes of fuel available to the market. The EPA decided to focus on feedstock availability when originally laying out the 2023-2025 proposal.
Robust January D4 RIN production and the introduction of two new Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) petitions, one for 2022 and one for 2023, limited gains.
D3 RINs slipped marginally as biogas came under fire in the latest CARB workshop.
Questions? Contact our team for more information: environmental@aegis-hedging.com