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Daily First Look
Daily briefNarciso Cano

Oil Firm Amid Security Tensions; Gas Drifts Lower on Mild Forecasts

Oil steady after US naval warning

  • The WTI prompt-month contract gained $0.18 to $64.54/Bbl on Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
  • US officials cautioned American-flagged vessels on Monday to keep maximum distance from Iranian waters while transiting the Strait of Hormuz
  • The advisory arrived even as diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran shows tentative progress on nuclear negotiations
  • At the same time, a significant US military presence remains in the Middle East alongside ongoing diplomatic outreach

Carlyle flags structural underinvestment in crude

  • Carlyle CEO Jeff Currie said global oil markets remain “materially underinvested,” arguing that persistent oversupply concerns have been overstated
    • “If you are having to scrape the data to find evidence of the glut, it is not an oil supply glut,” Currie said
  • The January EIA STEO still points to inventory accumulation through 2026, implying stock builds of roughly 2.8 MMBbl/d as supply growth exceeds demand

Natural gas prices are mostly unchanged, following yesterday’s 31c decline

  • Lower-48 population-weighted temperatures continue to look slightly elevated to the ten-year average over the next two weeks, suppressing gas demand
  • Dry gas production remains below 108 Bcf/d, about 2 Bcf/d lower than what was seen at the start of 2026
    • The Northeast region is the source of the production weakness

FERC approves 10 Bcf gas storage expansion (S&P)

  • Federal regulators have authorized NGPL to begin construction on a 10 Bcf expansion of the North Lansing Storage Field in Harrison County, Texas
  • The storage facility is located north of Carthage and near the Haynesville region
  • The project is expected to enter service in the first half of 2027
  • While demand and supply have both climbed over the last ten years, storage capacity has been relatively stagnant, but about 250 Bcf of new storage is planned over the next decade
    • Most new storage capacity will be in the South Central region, along the Gulf Coast

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