The WTI prompt-month contract edged up $0.08 to $60.44/Bbl on Wednesday morning (7:45 AM CT)
The International Energy Agency modestly raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, slightly narrowing the projected supply surplus
World oil consumption is now expected to rise by 930 MBbl/d in 2026, a small upward revision from prior estimates
The IEA noted that ample inventory buffers are helping insulate prices from supply risks tied to Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela
Global stockpiles are forecast to build by 3.7 MMBbl/d this year, though the agency cautioned that realized balances may undershoot headline projections
Kazakhstan oil flows set to recover (Bloomberg)
Final-stage maintenance is underway to restore offshore Mooring 3 at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium export terminal
The restart is critical for Kazakhstan, which exports roughly 90% of its crude via the CPC system
A return of Mooring 3 could lift export volumes in the final days of January
January CPC Blend loadings were cut by roughly 45% from the original program to an estimated 800–900 MBbl/d
Recent CPC disruptions tightened prompt supply, lending near-term support to crude prices
February natural gas gains another 90c after yesterday’s 80c rally
The prompt Henry Hub contract has surged more than $1.50/MMbtu since Friday’s settlement with February trading around $4.80/MMbtu (8:00 AM)
Over the past several days the near-term demand outlook has improved significantly, with Lower-48 population-weighted temperatures forecast to be more than 10 ºF below the ten-year average for much of the next two weeks
The incoming cold weather should send gas demand to a seasonal high and result in a very large storage withdrawal for the week of January 30, potentially 350+ Bcf
Freeze offs are already impacting gas production, with output at 106.5 Bcf/d this morning, according to data from S&P
Production losses should continue to rise through this weekend, peaking on Saturday
Weather forecast shift colder again (CWG)
Overnight, weather models cooled again, with major concerns for a large-scale ice storm across much of the southern US while the Midwest and Northeast also experience freezing weather
Forecasts currently show ice accumulation in the Permian and Haynesville regions, which will likely result in gas production free offs
Commodity Weather Group noted that the end of the 11-15 day period for the AIFS weather model appears to be setting the stage to support colder sub-seasonal models
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