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Daily briefNarciso Cano

WTI Slides as Iran Risk Fades; Henry Hub Stabilizes After Hitting Multi-Year Low

Oil Falls as Trump Comments Ease Iran Tensions

  • The WTI prompt-month contract fell $2.68 to $59.34/Bbl on Thursday morning (7:45 AM CT)
  • Prices dropped the most since October after President Trump signaled he may pause a potential military strike on Iran, saying he’d been assured that the government would stop killing protesters
    • His remarks lowered expectations for immediate US action and reduced the perceived risk of supply disruptions from Iran or key shipping routes
  • Bullish crude call activity remains elevated, with options markets heading for their second-strongest week on record, amplifying volatility in both directions (Bloomberg)

Tanker Rates Surge on Venezuela Developments (Bloomberg)

  • Washington’s intervention in Venezuela is reshaping shipping flows, driving regional tanker rates to their highest level in nearly two years
  • More Venezuelan crude is likely to head to US refiners on mid-sized tankers, which in turn forces more US WTI barrels to move to Europe on the same vessel class, tightening ship availability and lifting freight costs

Natural gas trades slightly higher after falling 30c yesterday

  • The February Henry Hub contract is trading near $3.15/MMbtu after falling to a new multi-year low yesterday (8:10 AM)
  • The outlook for near-term gas demand continues to improve, as Lower-48 temperatures are now forecast to be below the ten-year average for most of the next two weeks
  • LNG feedgas demand has struggled this week amid planned maintenance at Corpus Christ LNG and an unplanned outage at Freeport LNG
    • Yesterday, total US LNG feedgas demand fell to 16.89 Bcf/d, but has recovered to 18.4 Bcf/d this morning

Golden Pass LNG startup could extend into 2027 (Bloomberg)

  • According to LNG research firm Webber Research, the full startup of Golden Pass LG could extend beyond 2026
  • Train 1 is close to completion and should be producing LNG by the end of Q1 2026
  • There could potentially be delays to the startup of Train 2 and 3, with the potential for the ramp up to extend into early 2027

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