Skip to content
Daily First Look
Daily briefNarciso Cano

Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil Above $61 | Colder Outlook and Record Feedgas Bolster Natural Gas

Oil climbs above $60 as geopolitical tensions escalate

  • The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.17 to $60.67/Bbl on Tuesday morning (7:45 AM CT)
  • Futures extended gains after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries “doing business” with Iran and signaled he has not ruled out military action following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro
  • A Carlyle executive noted that “geopolitical risk is at an all-time high,” suggesting the backdrop could support higher prices
  • Options markets reflect this upside risk, with traders paying the largest premiums for bullish contracts since the Iran–Israel conflict last year (Bloomberg)
  • While potential disruptions to Iranian exports may offset some glut concerns, these near-term risks continue to clash with a fundamentally oversupplied global market

Russian crude barrels back up on the water (Bloomberg)

  • Tankers carrying Russian Urals crude are piling up offshore as Moscow struggles to regain market share in India
  • At least 12 vessels laden with Urals are anchored off the southern coast of Oman, some since mid-December, with additional ships arriving almost daily

Natural gas extends gains as weather forecasts shift colder again

  • Over the next seven days, Lower-48 population-weighted average temperatures are forecast to fall below the ten-year average, supporting near-term gas demand
    • Demand should reach a new high for the winter 2025/2026 season over the next two weeks
  • LNG feedgas demand has reached a new record high, with inflows to export plants reaching 20.62 Bcf/d

Northeast production falls as demand and prices fade (S&P)

  • Dry gas output in Appalachia has fallen from 37 Bcf/d in late December to an average of about 36 Bcf/d in January
  • Northeast production will often rise during periods of stronger local demand as it frees up more pipeline space
  • Northeast temperatures averaged 33.2 ºF in December, the coldest since 2010, but have warmed up to more than 40 ºF in recent days
  • There may be more upside to gas output over the next two weeks, as Northeast temperatures are currently forecast to fall below the ten-year average again

Want this in your inbox?

AEGIS market analysts publish research across crude, natural gas, NGLs, refined products, metals, and rates.

Subscribe to research

Previous issues of Daily First Look

This website uses cookies

We use a few essential cookies to make our site work, including one that counts how many reports you have opened. Analytics cookies are used only with your permission, and you can change your mind at any time. Learn more about cookies in our privacy policy.