The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.05 to $56.32/Bbl early Wednesday (7:45 AM CT)
President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela, escalating pressure on Caracas
Prices rebounded after WTI briefly slipped below $55/Bbl for the first time since February 2021
The move threatens to further restrict Venezuela’s oil exports, a critical source of revenue amid already severe financial strain
In parallel, the US is preparing a new round of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector should President Putin reject a peace agreement with Ukraine
South America underpins forecast supply growth in 2026 (EIA)
The EIA forecasts global crude production will rise by 0.8 MMBbl/d in 2026, with Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina contributing roughly 0.4 MMBbl/d
According to the latest STEO, these three countries accounted for 28% of global crude production growth in 2025
Since 2023, global supply growth has been driven primarily by non-OPEC+ producers
Natural gas prices rebound after four-day losing streak
The January contract is back near $4/MMbtu after trading as low as $3.84/MMbtu yesterday
Over the past several days, weather forecasts have come closer to the ten-year average after expectations of a particularly mild second half of December sent gas prices lower
Temperatures are still expected to be at or above the ten-year average for most of the next two weeks, but the outlook does not currently appear as bearish as it did a few days ago
Permian gas basis back in positive territory (S&P)
Spot prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas are trading above zero again after being below $0/MMbtu since December 8
Prices rebounded after maintenance on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline ended earlier than expected
Spot gas prices at Waha averaged about -$1.70/MMbtu over the past week and briefly traded as low as -$7/MMbtu
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