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Gas Holds Firm as LNG Demand Hits Record; IEA Raises Oil Glut Forecast for Sixth Month

Oil climbs as IEA maintains oversupply outlook
- The WTI prompt-month contract was up $0.57 at $59.06/Bbl Thursday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- The International Energy Agency raised its estimate for a record global oil surplus next year, projecting supply to exceed demand by just over 4 MMBbl/d
- While the IEA slightly increased its global demand growth forecast, it still expects growth of less than 800 MBbl/d
- The agency warned of “considerable downside risk” to Russian crude output following new U.S. sanctions
  - For now, Russian crude production is held at 9.3 MMBbl/d until the impact of sanctions becomes clearer
Russia gasoline prices ease (Bloomberg)
- Retail gasoline prices in Russia fell for the first time in over a year, offering consumers some relief after intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries
- The decline reflects seasonally weaker demand and improved refinery runs as several producers completed maintenance or repaired damage from attacks

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Updated regularly with the most important market moves and outlooks.

December Henry Hub trades higher with prices remaining near recent highs
- The prompt natural gas contract continues to trade around $4.50/MMbtu, with prices up about 40c from the start of November
- The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report tomorrow instead of the usual Thursday release, due to the holiday week
  - An injection of 34 Bcf is expected, which could be the final storage build of the year
- LNG feedgas demand hit a new record yesterday, of 19.86 Bcf/d
Golden Pass LNG approved to introduce fuel gas (Bloomberg)
- Federal regulators granted Golden Pass LNG approval to introduce fuel gas to Train 1, as the facility works toward startup in early 2026
- Fuel gas is the portion of natural gas used to power the liquefaction train and is separate from feedgas, which is gas to be liquefied and exported
- This approval is in line with estimates that say Golden Pass should begin receiving material volumes of gas around February or March
- A cargo of LNG is currently headed to Golden Pass to be used to cool down plant equipment and speed the startup process