Market Insights > First Look

First Look - OPEC+ Moves Ahead with October Quota Increase

OPEC+ approves fresh production quota increase
- OPEC+ will raise output by 137 MBbl/d in October, reversing cuts previously planned to stay through 2026
- The restart of the remaining 1.66 MMBbl/d tranche will depend on “evolving market conditions” and increases could be rolled back
- WTI prompt-month gained $1.27 to $63.14/Bbl Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- The impact of the increase has been tempered by the fact that monthly increases have been much smaller than advertised
- Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said the group leaves no room for doubt that its priority is market share
- Goldman Sachs kept its forecast for lower oil prices and expects commercial inventories to rise noticeably starting in 4Q
US and EU weigh new sanctions on Russia (Bloomberg)
- Washington and Brussels are discussing additional sanctions and secondary tariffs to push Russia toward peace talks with Ukraine
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is prepared to escalate pressure but needs European partners to follow
- The US and EU are weighing measures to fully shut down remaining Russian energy trade with Hungary and Slovakia still importing Russian oil

Regional Market Insights

Updated regularly with the most important market moves and outlooks.

Natural gas prices are sharply higher this morning, extending gains from last week
- After gaining about 8c last week, the October Henry Hub contract is up 14c this morning to $3.18/MMbtu (8:15 AM)
- Lower-48 population weighted temperatures are forecast to warm up later this week and remain near the ten-year average, after being below average for the past several days
- Gas production has moved lower to 106.3 Bcf/d after reaching 108 Bcf/d over the weekend, according to data from S&P
LNG Canada expansion expected to FID by the end of 2026 (HartEnergy)
- Shell plans to decide on Phase 2 of the LNG Canada expansion by the end of 2026, potentially doubling its capacity to 3.74 Bcf/d
- Phase 1's technical issues reduced output by 50%, while Phase 2 faced delays, leading LNG Canada to seek an export limit increase
- Increased LNG export capacity from Canada should help prevent oversupply issues, which have been common in recent years