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First Look - Traders Eye Ukraine Ceasefire Talks as Oil Slips

Oil slips as traders weigh Ukraine ceasefire prospects
- WTI prompt-month futures fell $0.70 to $62.72/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- President Trump is pushing for a summit between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky following a series of high-level talks
- Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said crude “may be in for a holding pattern,” noting that while the path to a resolution has opened, it could take time
- A peace deal could eventually ease restrictions on Russian crude exports, though Moscow has largely maintained flows throughout the conflict
China refiners step up purchases of Russian Urals crude (Bloomberg)
- Chinese refiners are increasing imports of discounted Urals cargoes, taking advantage of India’s pullback amid US trade tariffs
- Urals remains competitive versus alternative grades, leaving Chinese buyers “in a comfortable position to keep taking Russian oil for now,” according to Energy Aspects’ Jianan Sun
Petrobras revises spending outlook
- Brazilian state-run Petrobras is adjusting its next five-year spending plan to reflect a lower price environment, assuming oil at around $65/Bbl
- CEO Magda Chambriard said the company is revisiting projects in light of the weaker outlook

Natural gas prices are lower following cooler weather shift
- The September Henry Hub contract is down about 10c, with prices trading near last week’s low (8:20 AM)
- Lower-48 weather forecasts shifted cooler again, with temperatures now forecast to be well below the ten-year average over most of the next two weeks
- Supply has remained strong, with yesterday’s production revised higher to 107.5 Bcf/d, according to S&P data
Woodside sees LNG demand growing (BBG)
- On the company’s latest earnings call, Woodside said, “we’re starting to see more demand from the non-OECD nations in Asia” and that “as their economy grows, their energy demand grows”
- While demand in these countries is growing, domestic gas supply has been declining
- Woodside expects global gas prices to increase towards the end of the year