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First Look - Market shifts focus to US-Ukraine meeting; LNG feedgas falls to month-to-date low

August 18, 2025 | Narciso Cano

Oil steady as focus turns to Trump–Zelensky meeting
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.01 to $62.81 Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Monday
  - After the US-Russia meeting on Friday, Trump said he will urge Zelensky to make a quick deal and indicated he was open to meeting Putin’s demand that Ukraine give up large swathes of land
  - Analysts caution little bullish momentum will come from the region, with PVM’s Tamas Varga noting “Russia retains the upper hand”
- CFTC data show money managers cut net-long positions in WTI to the lowest since 2009, while Brent net-longs posted their steepest drop in nearly two months
  - The WTI Dec.-Dec. spread weakened to its lowest since late June
- In a Fox News interview, Trump said he will delay raising tariffs on Chinese goods in light of Beijing’s purchases of Russian crude, despite punishing India for buying Russian crude

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Natural gas is trading lower, reversing gains from Friday
- Lower-48 weather forecasts cooled over the weekend, leading to a substantial drop in expected gas demand over the next two weeks
- LNG feedgas has fallen to a month-to-date low, with Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG flows falling
- Gas production reached more than 107 Bcf/d over the weekend, but fell to 106.8 Bcf/d this morning
Speculators add to net-short position
- According to data from the CFTC, large speculators increased their net-short position by the most in nine weeks
- Managed money participants are now short about 50k contracts of Henry Hub futures, on net
- Typically, speculators operate as trend followers, increasing their short positions as prices fall

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