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First Look - Oil climbs despite bearish forecasts; gas slightly lower ahead of storage report

August 14, 2025 | Narciso Cano

Oil climbs despite wave of bearish market forecasts
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.52 to $63.17/Bbl Thursday morning (7:57 AM CT)
- Downbeat projections from the IEA and EIA point to rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC supply in Q4
- RBC’s Brian Leisen said supplies “are primed to back up in the Atlantic Basin,” adding that crude balances for the rest of the year look weaker than a year ago
- Traders are watching Friday’s US–Russia summit, which could bring an easing of sanctions on Moscow
  - President Trump warned of “very severe consequences” if Vladimir Putin refuses a ceasefire agreement this week
- Bloomberg reports Indian refiners are seeking alternative crude ahead of the summit
  - Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods in retaliation for Russian energy imports
  - State processors in India purchased significant volumes of non-Russian crude this week for prompt September–October delivery

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Natural gas prices are trading lower, with September prices continuing to remain weak
- Weather forecasts continue to show Lower-48 average temperatures near the ten-year average for the next two weeks, keeping demand limited
- The EIA is expected to report an injection of 54-Bcf into storage today, according to the Bloomberg survey
DT Midstream moves up LEAP phase 4 start up (NGI)
- DTM accelerated the timeline for phase 4 of the LEAP expansion to 1Q 2026 from the prior timeline of 2H 2026
- LEAP transports gas from production zones in northern Louisiana to demand in southern Louisiana
- The phase 4 expansion increases capacity from 1.9 Bcf/d to 2.1 Bcf/d
- DTM also mentioned possibly expanding the Nexus pipeline in the Northeast to 2.5 Bcf/d, depending on demand growth in the upper Midwest

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