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First Look - Oil falls ahead of Putin-Trump meeting; natural gas lower as forecast shifts cooler

Oil falls ahead of Trump-Putin meeting
- The WTI prompt-month contract fell $0.37 to $63.59/Bbl Tuesday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- President Trump extended the China tariff truce for 90 days on Monday, and absent other major drivers, traders are looking to a meeting between Trump and Putin later this week for any addition of possible sanctions
  - Trump has downplayed expectations for his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling it a “feel-out meeting”
- Threats of additional tariffs are having little impact on flows ahead of the meeting as Rusia’s oil shipments remain within range seen so far this year, according to Bloomberg
OPEC forecasts tighter oil outlook (Bloomberg)
- Citing accelerated demand growth and slower expansion in non-OPEC supplied, OPEC forecasts a tighter global oil market than previously projected
- The group raised estimated for world demand growth in 2026 by 100 MBbl/d to 1.4 MMBbl/d
- However, OPEC’s outlook has been excessively bullish in recent

Natural gas is lower after cooler weather forecast shift
- The September Henry Hub contract is down nearly 10c this morning, with prices falling below $2.90/MMbtu (8:15 AM)
- Lower-48 weather forecasts shifted significantly cooler, with temperatures expected to decline after this week, depressing power sector gas demand
- Gas production has remained firm, with output averaging 106.7 Bcf/d this week, in line with the last several weeks, according to S&P data
Energy Transfer nears FID for Lake Charles LNG
- In the company’s latest earnings call, they said that a final investment decision could be secured by the end of the year
- Energy Transfer is still awaiting a DOE permit to export to non-NAFTA countries, following the LNG permitting pause last year
- The Lake Charles LNG export plant is expected to have a capacity of 2.2 Bcf/d, and to enter service by the end of 2028