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First Look - Oil steady as Trump-Putin talks take shape; gas flat despite record LNG feedgas

August 11, 2025 | Narciso Cano

Oil steady ahead of Trump-Putin meeting
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.34 to $64.22/Bbl Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- President Trump announced a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska
  - Trump had declared an August 8 deadline, however no additional measures against Moscow or buyers of Russian barrels were announced by the president
- US and Russian officials are working towards a deal that would lock in Russia’s occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, according to Bloomberg
- Bjarne Schieldrop of SEB AB said, “Trump is very, very unlikely to slap sanctions on Russian oil while this process is ongoing, i.e., no disruption of Russian oil in sights
- The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs took effect on August 7 across dozens of trade partners, and customs will suspend the $800 de minimis import exemption for most commercial shipments on August 29
- According to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Iran will not allow nuclear site inspections when a senior International Atomic Energy Agency official visits Tehran on Monday

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Natural gas is trading slightly lower, extending losses from last week
- The September Henry Hub contract fell to a low of $2.90/MMbtu last night, but has since reversed most of those losses and is now near Friday’s closing price
- While Lower-48 population-weighted average temperatures are forecast to be above the ten-year average for most of the next two weeks, the last four days of the forecast period now show below average temperatures
- LNG feedgas hit an all-time high of 17.43 Bcf/d, as Plaquemines LNG reached 3.3 Bcf/d of inflows
Sempra plans Costa Azul LNG startup for summer 2026 (S&P)
- Sempra’s planned LNG export terminal on the Pacific coast of Mexico should begin delivering volumes to customers next summer, in a slight delay from the previous timing of spring 2026
- Phase one of the facility will include one 0.43 Bcf/d liquefaction train
- The plant will be supplied with gas sourced from the US, via pipeline interconnects

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