- President Trump doubles tariffs on imported goods from India
- Trump signed an executive order doubling India’s tariff rate from 25% to 50% as a penalty for its purchases of Russian crude
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.31 to $64.66/Bbl Thursday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- Trump has set an August 8 deadline for Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine or face economic penalties
- Trump floated the possibility of similar secondary tariffs for China for its respective purchases of Russian oil
- According to Bloomberg, India’s state-owned oil companies plan to skip spot purchases of crude in the upcoming buying cycle until further guidance, affecting purchases of Russia’s Urals cargoes for October-loading
- Traders warn of narrowing window to refill diesel stockpiles (Bloomberg)
- Diesel inventories are trying to recover from low levels, but traders warn the upcoming hurricane season and refinery maintenance could threaten output
- Trump’s punitive tariffs on India may leave Europe more exposed, as it already relies on long-haul diesel imports post-Russia ban
- The crack spread is currently above $20 in Europe and around $30 in the US
- Goldman Sachs expects both spreads to stay near current levels into 2026 “on continuing structural tightness in refining capacity”
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