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First Look - Oil rises as trade progresses; natural gas rebounds from YTD lows ahead of EIA print

Oil rises as trade talks progress and inventories drop
- The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.74 to $65.99 Thursday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- The EU and US are progressing towards a deal that would set the tariff on imported goods at 15%
  - The EU is also set to hold a meeting with representatives of China on Thursday
- The EIA reported US crude inventories fell by 3.2 MMBbls last week, but levels at Cushing rose for a third week
  - While diesel inventories rose, they’re still at the lowest seasonal level since 1996
TotalEnergies paints dour outlook for crude market (Bloomberg)
- The supermajor says the oil market is facing “abundant supply that is fueled by OPEC+’s decision to unwind some voluntary production cuts.”
- Total CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, says the EU measures to restrict imports of Russian fuel and surging supplies of lighter crude are driving diesel prices up

Natural gas recovers from recent lows
- The August contract is up about 8c after falling to a new year-to-date low yesterday (8:15 AM)
- Gas production is lower today, at 105.2 Bcf/d, down from weekend highs of 107.2 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P
- The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report this morning, with a median expectation of a 27 Bcf build in inventories
Venture Global starts production from Plaquemines Phase 2 (PGJ)
- Venture Global began producing LNG from Phase 2 of its Plaquemines facility in Louisiana
- Phase 2 customers, including major energy firms, will receive LNG by mid-2027, with Phase 2 customers, including major energy firms, receiving LNG by mid-2027
- Gas flows into the plant should continue to rise throughout the remainder of the year, toward 3.8 Bcf/d