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First Look - Crude slumps toward weekly loss as China retaliates and EIA cuts demand outlook

Oil heads for weekly loss amid escalating trade tensions
- Crude prices are on track to fall more than 3% this week, weighed down by mounting trade tensions between the US and China
- China will hike tariffs on all US goods from 84% to 125% starting April 12, in retaliation to the latest round of U.S. tariff increases
- China’s Ministry of Commerce stated it will disregard any additional US tariff actions
- The EIA has cut its crude demand forecast by 400 MBbl/d for 2025
- Oil has dropped 15% so far in April, and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty is likely to keep downward pressure on prices
Macquarie Strategist Vikas Dwivedi: (Bloomberg)
- “We think we’re close” to a price floor
- US shale producers begin reconsidering capital plans around $65/Bbl WTI
- Marginal cuts begin around $60/Bbl, with more substantial reductions near $55/Bbl
- Growth halts entirely if prices drop to $50/Bbl
Vortexa Senior Analyst Emma Li: (Bloomberg)
- Iranian crude exports to China surged to a record 1.8 MMBbl/d in March
- Of that, 1.5 MMBbl/d was delivered to Shandong province
- Shandong’s onshore inventories jumped by over 20 MMBbls in March, the fastest build on record

Natural gas is trading lower and heading for a second weekly loss
- The prompt contract is down about 8c this morning as prices continue to come off and the market heads for a second weekly loss, with prices down about 72c over that period
EIA raises LNG export forecast (BBG)
- In the latest short-term outlook released by the EIA, the agency said it sees higher US LNG exports in 2025 due to faster-than-expected production at Plaquemines LNG
- The EIA now expects US export plants to liquefy 15.2 Bcf/d in 2025, up 7% from last month's forecast
- The forecast for overall gas demand in 2025 grew by 4%