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First Look - Oil prices continue to rise amid rising Middle East tensions

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday morning, with WTI rising 88c to $68.46/Bbl (7:45 AM CT)
- Prices increased for the third consecutive day amid rising Middle East tensions
  - Israel resumed military strikes on Gaza, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire
  - President Trump warned of retaliation against Iran if the Yemeni Houthis continue attacking ships in the Red Sea
- Despite the price rise, crude remains on track for a quarterly loss
Macquarie Group warns of oil market glut
- The crude market is expected to face a 1 MMBbl/d surplus in the coming months, with Brent crude projected to average $68/Bbl this year
Russian crude exports remain near a four-month high
- Crude flows from all Russian ports in the four weeks leading up to March 16 remained stable at 3.4 MMBbl/d, close to the highest levels since November 10 (Bloomberg)
- Approximately 4.2 MMBbl of Russian Pacific crude are currently on tankers that have been idle for over seven days, down from 7.7 MMBbl two weeks ago, possibly suggesting that discharging difficulties may be easing

Natural gas is trading higher, reversing losses from yesterday
- The April Henry Hub contract continues to trade above $4/MMbtu despite falling below it intraday
- Lower 48 gas production is lower by 1.65 Bcf/d to 104.57 Bcf/d, according to S&P data
LNG Canada to receive cooldown cargo ahead of startup (BBG)
- A vessel carrying a shipment of LNG from Australia is set to arrive at the LNG Canada project site in Kitimat, British Columbia, as the new export plant prepares for operations
- The cargo is set to arrive on March 31, while the export facility is scheduled to come online in the next few months
- Flows into LNG Canada may begin to gradually increase as commissioning continues
- The startup of LNG Canada may help tighten Canadian gas markets, which are often plagued by oversupply