Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Oil heads for first weekly decline of 2025

Oil is trading higher but heading for the first weekly decline of 2025
- WTI prices fell this week following comments by President Trump on trade and OPEC
  - Yesterday prices fell after Trump asked OPEC to lower oil prices
Chevron’s Kazakhstan oil field expands (BBG)
- Chevron has completed an expansion at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan, which should boost production to 1 MMBbl/d from 0.7 MMBbl/d
- Output from the field will mainly go to Europe and Asia
- Kazakhstan’s growing oil production has put pressure on OPEC, which has been limiting production for the past few years
Trump order could revive Keystone XL pipeline (BBG)
- President Trump rescinded an executive order from the Biden administration which revoked the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline
- While possible, It is unlikely the project will continue in the near future as many permits have expired and developers have lost interest

Natural gas was trading 9c lower Friday morning to $3.855 (8:15 CT)
- Weather models lack consensus for February, creating a wide range of outcomes for next month in terms of demand
- LNG volumes continue to recover from a low of 10.46 Bcf/d yesterday (Criterion)
  - This morning’s nominations were just over 14 Bcf/d
- US dry gas production is now back to 102.5 Bcf/d, about the same level observed in the first two weeks of January
The EIA reported a 223 Bcf draw in underground storage yesterday, lower than what a majority of analysts expected
- The bearish miss in storage estimates added additional downward pressure to Nymex on Thursday
- Gas inventories now sit only 21 Bcf above the five-year average