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First Look - Russia's seaborne crude shipments fall 11% since October

Oil is trading lower, extending losses from yesterday
- Oil fell again today, as weakness in global equity markets and soft consumption in China has weighed on prices
- The US signaled it may look to lower the price cap on Russian oil to limit the country’s funds for the war in Ukraine
Russia’s seaborne crude shipments have fallen 11% since October (BBG)
- Crude exports by water have averaged about 3.06 MMBbl/d in the period through December 15, down from a recent peak of 3.46 MMBbl/d
- The decline comes amid increased Western sanctions and pressure from OPEC to maintain production quotas
- The EU recently added 42 oil tankers to its list of sanctioned vessels, with Western powers seeking to curtail the Russian tanker shadow fleet

Natural gas traded 5c lower to $3.16 Tuesday morning (8:02 AM) as the two-week weather forecast held one cold shot before massive warmth
- Day 6, or Dec. 22, is the coldest day of the forecast that bathes the eastern half of the US in below-normal conditions
- Beyond the cold event, The Commodity Weather Group increased its forecasts confidence in the warm to super-warm direction
Lower 48 LNG nominations rose to nearly 15 Bcf/d this morning as Plaquemines LNG continues to ramp
- The new facility is now taking in 400 MMcf/d of gas from pipelines
- The LNG plant is estimated to ramp to full phase-1 capacity by mid-to-late-‘25
- AEGIS notes that the startup of Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 will help tighten the gas market, but production near 104 Bcf/d has offset some of the tightness in the market