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First Look - Russian oil exports to India unlikely to decline

Oil is trading slightly higher, reversing some losses from last week
- Despite trading higher this morning oil remains near a seven-week low as concerns over Chinese demand persist
- Saxo Bank said in a note that “Crude prices continued to be weighed down by China demand concerns and ample global supply into 2025, after both OPEC and the IEA lowered their demand forecasts”
- Prompt spreads have continued to narrow, indicating a softer near-term market
India unlikely to reduce Russian crude imports under Trump
- India unlikely to cut Russian crude imports under Trump administration due to price advantages
- Russia provides 38-40% of India's crude oil; India prioritizes cheapest sources
- US crude imports to India declined as Russian imports increased to over 40%
- Complexity of Indian refineries allows easy shift from U.S. to Russian oil grades

Natural gas traded mostly flat Monday morning (8:13 AM) as weather model runs showed demand losses over the weekend
- The December contract was up near $3.00/MMBtu on Sunday evening trading before paring gains to $2.85 Monday before market open
- Weekend weather forecasts showed a shift of more anomalous warmth through the southeast and northeast, mainly in the 11-15 day window
European gas prices remain high after flows from Russia halted shipments to Austria (Bloomberg)
- TTF traded just above $14/MMbtu equivalent in the face of halted shipments to Austria’s OMV AG on Saturday over an arbitration dispute
- OMV’s supply loss equates to nine cargoes of LNG until the end of the year, according to RBC’s Adnan Dhanani
  - “This potential incremental call of LNG could add further stress to what has already been an uneasy start to winter in Europe,” he said in a note on Sunday (BBG)
- Despite the OMV cutoff, Russia is still sending gas to Europe