- Oil gained Thursday morning as crude prices worked themselves off October lows
- Two significant items to impact crude prices are next week’s election and the OPEC+ decision on whether or not to bring back barrels starting in December
- Crude Imports from Canada at record after TMX expansion (PGJ)
- U.S. imports of Canadian crude reached a record 4.3 MMBbl/d in July 2024 after the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which tripled capacity to 0.9 MMBbl/d from Alberta to the West Coast
- Over 50% of Western Canada’s maritime crude exports were sent to the U.S. West Coast from June to Sept. 2024, with increased flows to Asia also reported
- The Brent price premium over WCS was $21 in July 2024, with a narrowing differential by October compared to the previous year
- New crude oil pipelines from the Permian unlikely (Reuters)
- Major U.S. pipeline operators prioritize expansions over new Permian pipelines due to modest growth projections, high construction costs, and regulatory challenges. Disciplined production and market constraints also limit the need for new pipeline projects.
- Enbridge plans to increase capacity on its Gray Oak pipeline by 0.12 MMBbl/d by 2026, while EPIC is considering a 0.3 MMBbl/d expansion toward south Texas
- Permian producers maintain production discipline, with growth estimated at 0.3 MMBbl/d, aligned with government projections and not spurred by recent price fluctuations
- Delays in deepwater export projects like SPOT reflect shifting crude flows and customer hesitancy amid evolving geopolitical factors
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