September 23, 2019

September 23, 2019
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  • WTI is down 12c to $57.97/Bbl, and Brent is down 16c to $64.12/Bbl
  • Most of the Saudi oil production, knocked offline September 14 after drone and missile strikes, is back online, according to Reuters
    • The kingdom has restored more than 75% of oil output, a source told Reuters
    • Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has previously said the output will be fully back online by the end of September
  • The US oil-directed rig count fell by 14 to 719, a fifth straight week of losses, according to Baker Hughes
    • The oil rig count has fallen by 152 so far this year, marking a 28-month low as of last Friday
    • Despite the precipitous drop in oil rigs this year, output from the top US shale basins is expected to rise by 74 MBbl/d to about 8.84 MMBbl/d in October, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
  • Money managers were not persuaded to add many positions last week after futures soared following the attacks on Saudi infrastructure
    • Hedge fund’s net-longs only increased by about 12 thousand contracts to 213,410
      • Net-long is the difference between the amount of short and long contracts as reported by the CFTC
  • Natural gas is down 1.9c to $2.515/MMBtu
  • Natural gas production has fallen below 90 Bcf/d, mirroring declines in the active rig count
    • Production in the Northeast is the biggest contributor and accounts for close to 600 MMcf/d of declines over the past month
    • The U.S. natural gas rig count has fallen to a yearly low of 148
  • The Gulf Coast Express (GCX) is currently seeing flows of a little over 400 MMcf/d,according to Pointlogic
    • Owner of the pipe, Kinder Morgan, moved GCX official startup date to September 20 from October 1 earlier this summer
  • Feed gas flows have maintained above the 6.0 Bcf/d mark, despite the three-week maintenance schedule for CovePoint LNG
    • The liquefaction facility generally accounts for close to 800 MMcf/d in demand

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