October 18, 2019

October 18, 2019
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  • WTI is up 56c to $54.49/Bbl, and Brent is up 20c to $60.11/Bbl
  • China’s economy expanded at the slowest pace since the early 1990’s in 3Q of this year, data showed on Friday (Bloomberg)
    • China’s slowing economy is evidence that the trade war is taking a toll on global growth
    • Gross domestic product rose 6% from 3Q period a year ago
  • The EIA reported a huge build in crude stocks on Wednesday for the week ending October 11
    • US crude inventories rose by 9.3 MMBbl versus estimates of under a 3 MMBbl build
    • This was the largest weekly build in crude stocks since late April
    • However, oil prices stayed steady following the data release as gasoline and distillate fuel stock had large declines
  • TC Energy (formerly TransCanada) declared a force majeure on its 590 MBbl/d Keystone crude pipeline system because of severe winter weather in Manitoba, Canada
    • The pipeline is now running a reduced rates, according to TC
    • Keystone moves crude from Hardisty, Alberta, to the US Gulf coast and other key market hubs including Patoka, Illinois and Cushing, Oklahoma
  • Natural gas is down 1.5c to $2.303/MMBtu
  • The EIA reported a 104-Bcf build for the week ending October 11, this was the third triple digit build in four weeks
    • Natural gas inventories have surpassed the five-year average for the first time in two years
    • Weather forecasts for this winter will become increasingly important to monitor
      • Current NOAA forecasts are predicting a warmer-than-normal weather outlook
  • A tropical cyclone has officially formed in the Gulf Coast
    • Spaghetti models forecast the cyclone hitting the panhandle of Florida
    • Non-essential personnel are being evacuated from production platforms
    • Gas demand in the southeast could be negatively impacted as cooler weather moves into the area and the threat of power outages increases

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