November 4, 2019

November 4, 2019
Print Friendly, PDF & Email
  • Create your own user feedback survey
  • WTI is up 58c to $56.78/Bbl, and Brent is up 69c to $62.38/Bbl
  • Hedge funds reversed the trend of bets on falling crude oil for the first time in six weeks (CFTC)
    • Outright short positions were reduced by 12k contracts to 112,297
    • The net position, longs plus shorts, is still net-long about 100k contracts – near 2019 lows
  • The oil-directed rig count fell by five last week to 691, according to Baker Hughes
    • By state,  Oklahoma lost the most total rigs, at three
    • The total US land rig count, inclusive of oil and gas,  stands at 822 active rigs
    • Continental Resources CEO Harold Hamm said the US need 800 land rigs to balance oil supply and demand (Argus)
    • Drilling activity is expected to slow further as some producers further reduce spending plans – a trend seen so far in upstream 3Q earnings calls
  • The Keystone pipeline disruption continues to weigh on Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil prices
    • TC Energy’s Keystone pipeline transports crude from Alberta to the Midwest and the Gulf Coast
    • The fall in WCS crude prices has been focused on the front of the curve
      • This suggest the market sees little impact past a month
  • Natural gas is up 9.6c to $2.810/MMBtu
  • Cheniere is moving up the in-service date of their Corpus Christi Trian 3 to 1H2021, as opposed to 2H2021
    • The Sabine Pass Train 6 is also having its in-service date moved up to 1H2023
    • A Final Investment Decision for the Corpus Christi Stage 3 Midscale expansion will be made in 1H2020
    • LNG feed gas demand reached a new high of 7.7 Bcf/d
  • Natural gas long positions increased by 12,085 contracts to 118,785 contracts total, according to the CFTC
    • Short positions fell 21,951 contracts to 298,878 contracts total
    • The December contract saw its biggest weekly price spike since January 2019, rising approximately 10%
  • Weather forecasts continue to show colder than normal temperatures through the middle of November
    • Gas-Weighted Heating Degree Days for November are forecasted to come in at 639, 1-degree day away from breaking into the top ten coldest Novembers of all time according to the Commodity Weather Group
    • The Cold weather will be concentrated in the Midwest and East Coast through the 11-to-15-day forecast

Access Our Deeper Market Insights

Product Factor Matrix

Proprietary view of priced-in factors driving the market vs. potential bullish and bearish surprises.

Learn More

Trading Recommendations

Clear trading recommendations based on real market opportunities that enable clients to take action.

Learn More

Market Data

A comprehensive suite of the latest curves, spot pricing, settles, and strips to drive confident hedging decisions.

Learn More

Benchmarking and Trade Analytics

Real-time access to analyze your hedging strategy against AEGIS benchmarks and current market activity.

Learn More