November 26, 2019

November 26, 2019
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  • WTI is up 23c to $58.24/Bbl, and Brent is up 18c to $63.83/Bbl
  • OPEC needs to make the right decision for the global economy, which remains “very fragile”, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) told Reuters in Oslo
    • OPEC+ meets in Vienna on December 5 and 6 to discuss the state of the oil markets and current supply cut policy
    • IEA head Fatih Birol said in the interview “There will be lots of oil in the markets. I hope they (OPEC) will make the right decision for themselves and for the global economy, which is still very fragile.”
    • Birol expects a decline in U.S. shale growth over the next year or so, but still believes the market will be over supplied as demand wanes and other sources of supply come online
  • Enbridge and Enterprise Products Partners will launch an open season for an expansion of the 950 MBbl/d Seaway crude pipeline from Cushing to the US Gulf Coast
    • The companies are looking to expand the pipeline up to 1,150 MBbl/d, mostly through pump upgrades
    • Half of the incremental capacity could be available in the second half of 2020 with the other 100 MBbl/d available in 2022 (Argus)
    • The two companies, who each own 50% of the line, said they would offer a competitive fee schedule starting at 99c/Bbl for light crude service from Cushing. Fees will depend on volume, destination and term.
  • Natural gas is down 8.3c to $2.448/MMBtu
  • December gas-weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) are projected to come in at 875 according to the Commodity Weather Group, the 30-year normal is 867 HDDs
    • The risk of warming in the 11-to-15-day outlook appears to be keeping a cap on the potential for colder weather in the future
    • Prompt month contracts will continue to be increasingly sensitive to weather model outlooks as record production and ample storage keep up bearish pressures
  • Cheniere is seeking to export additional volumes of 0.4 Bcf/d and 0.3 Bcf/d from its Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi facilities, respectively
    • These increases would equate to 153 Bcf and 108 Bcf a year of additional exports
    • Cheniere is also in the process of seeking approval to expand its port capacity at its Sabine Pass facility
  • Canada’s rail strike is not only impacting the transportation of propane, but is also affecting crop, oil, coal, and other manufactured good shipments
    • These strikes are also bleeding into international commodity markets as many ports in Western Canada are serviced exclusively by Canadian National Railway

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