November 21, 2019

November 21, 2019
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  • WTI is up 30c to $57.31/Bbl, and Brent is up 26c to $62.66/Bbl
  • US crude inventories rose by 1.4 MMBbl last week, slightly higher than analysts’ estimates (EIA)
    • Government crude stats were mostly bearish except for a sizable withdrawal at Cushing, Oklahoma, a second week of large declines and the largest in three months
    • Oil prices seemed to focus on the Cushing draw as price stayed steady following the Wednesday morning inventory release
  • There may be trouble ahead on the US/China trade-war front as President Trump is set to vote on a bill supporting Hong Kong
    • Trump is expected to sign two bills passed by Congress that support protesters in Hong Kong, irking China
    • Reuters reported that completion of a “phase one” US/China trade deal could slide into next year
    • A delay to the deal could mean the US will implement new tariffs on imports from China
  • Natural gas is down 1.8c to $2.541/MMBtu
  • Analysts estimate a -91 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 15, this would be 18-Bcf less than the -109 Bcf withdrawal in the corresponding week last year
    • Estimates ranged from a withdrawal of -78 Bcf to -102 Bcf
    • The 5-year withdrawal averages around -32 Bcf
  • Kinder Morgan is seeking to introduce hazardous materials for Train 5 at its Elba facility
    • Freeport LNG is seeking approval to place Train 1 into full commercial service after commissioning activities began in September
    • Cameron LNG was approved to introduce hazardous materials to its second train with commissioning anticipated for 1Q2020
  • Weather models are in more of an agreement today with colder-than-expected weather showing up in the 11-to-15-day outlook
    • The December 6 week, which includes Thanksgiving weekend, is forecasted to be the coldest week since early March according to the Commodity Weather Group
    • Nevertheless, production still remains near record highs and any trend towards milder weather could pressure gas prices lower

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