July 10, 2019

July 10, 2019
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  • WTI is up $1.55 to $59.38/Bbl, and Brent is up $1.68 to $65.84/Bbl
  • Oil higher this morning as the API shows a big US crude inventory draw
    • The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday afternoon, showed US crude inventories fell by 8.1 MMBbl
    • EIA data due out later this morning
  • Producers started evacuating and shutting production at their deepwater GOM platforms in advance of the tropical disturbance expected later this week
    • Shell, BP, Chevron, and BHP Group are removing staff from 15 offshore energy platforms (Reuters)
    • The GOM is home to 17 percent of US crude oil output and 5 percent of natural gas output
  • Put skew for WTI eased to the least bearish in almost two months on Tuesday (Bloomberg)
    • Volatility for both WTI and Brent dropped to the lowest in more than a month as WTI nears $60 and Brent $65+
  • EIA petroleum data is due out this morning at 9:30 am CT
    • U.S. Crude Inventories:                  –    1,869 MBbls (Bloomberg surveys)
    • U.S. Gasoline Inventories:             –    1,839 MBbls
    • U.S. Distillate Inventories:            +      671 MBbls
    • U.S. Refinery Utilization:               –   0.06% change
  • Natural gas is up 1.2c to $2.437/MMBtu
  • The tropical cyclone in the Gulf has been given a 90% chance of forming, up from 50% yesterday
    • Spaghetti models have the cyclone primarily hitting the Louisiana coast, however there is a greater chance for the storm to pass over portions of upper east Texas
  • April, May, and June have all set record highs for power burn this year, however, this run may end in July
    • July weather is almost in parity with last year’s temperatures
    • Overall, US 2019 power burn levels have surpassed 2018 by an average of 0.5 Bcf/d
  • Cheniere has been hit with regulation regarding two leaking storage tanks at its Sabine facility (Platts)
    • Any routine maintenance would place greater emphasis on the Sabine trains to maximize utilization rates
    • Despite lower storage levels, the US, as a whole, has been setting a string of records for feedgas demand

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