January 10, 2020

January 10, 2020
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  • WTI is down 19c to $59.37/Bbl, and Brent is down 7c to $65.30/Bbl
  • WTI remains just under $60/Bbl as the market weighs tensions between the U.S. and Iran
    • The U.S. benchmark has traded in a wide $7/Bbl range this week with a high of $65.65 and a low of $58.68 as of this morning
    • Western intelligence shows the downed Ukrainian airliner in Iran was likely shot down with Russian missiles by Iran on accident
    • Aboard the flight were 176 people, 63 of those were Canadian
  • Chinese government officials will visit Washington next week to sign a “phase one” trade deal with the US, according to China’s  commerce ministry
    • Chinese vice-premier Liu He will lead a delegation to Washington over January 13-15 to sign the deal
    • President Trump said “We will start right away negotiating phase two. It will take a little time”
    • AEGIS notes that a “phase-one” trade deal and deeper OPEC+ supply cuts have helped WTI crude oil prices trade near multi-month highs
  • Natural gas is up 3.4c to $2.200/MMBtu
  • Prompt-month gas prices are trending slightly higher as the 11-to-15-day outlook continues to show more typical January temperatures creeping in along the east coast
    • While this is an encouraging sign, the difference between the 6-to-10 and 11-to-15-day forecasts would suggest a significant reversal in temperatures — keeping confidence muted for the meantime
    • It should be noted that sustained winter weather would be needed to have a profound and long-lasting impact on natural gas prices
  • The EIA reported a gas storage withdrawal of -44 Bcf for the week ending January 3
    • Price action immediately following the report actually caused prices to rise slightly despite the very bearish storage data
    • Gas storage projections are starting to show a breakaway from the 5-year average to the more bearish end of the spectrum

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