- Oil prices were up as much as $1.50/Bbl to $83.60 Friday morning, but trading remained choppy as the dollar weakened and the market continued to digest the Middle East war
- Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell hinted the central bank may forego future rate hikes
- There are concerns that the physical oil market is looser after the EIA reported stock builds yesterday, and oil curve structure has weakened
- Traders pulled forward their expectations for the first US rate cut to June from July (Bloomberg)
- Fed swaps now show 30 basis points of easing by June, up from 23 bps prior to this morning's payroll data
- Unemployment ticked up to 3.9%, and non-farm payroll employment increased by 150k jobs- below pre-report estimates
- WTI curve structure has flattened with the pullback in headline prices
- The WTI prompt spread (Month 1 – Month 2) has contracted to +34c from a peak of +$2.38/Bbl
- Analysts point to growing inventories amid weaker refinery demand coupled with sluggish demand data from China as a reason why oil prices have lost strength (GS, Bloomberg)