RIN prices tumbled to the lowest levels in over three years on October 10, before the market turned cautiously bullish on concerns that a worsening margin environment would prompt run cuts and delay projects. A material decline in refined productions exports likely spurred covering during the third week of the month.
Buying appetite returned to the marketplace even amid pronounced diesel strength.
The October 19 release of the September RIN generation report showed total D4 generation eclipses the 2023 total advanced mandate by nearly 600 million credits. Should D4 generation continue at this pace the market will face a glut of nearly 2.5 billion 2023 vintage D4 credits.